Raoul Pal
Founder/CEO - https://t.co/WL4VnN8Oal, @RealVision. Trying to figure things out at the nexus of Macro, Web3 & the Exponential Age. Not a guru. #DFTU
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In a world of MASSIVE change - a 4th Turning maybe - where our personal economies, finance, politics and our old ways of life are all called into question as the world seeks fresh...
October is the month stock market crashes - It is also the month that kills bear markets... Let's dig in... 1/
Understanding risk... A Sharpe Ratio is (roughly speaking) the excess returns over the observable volatility of an asset. A Sharpe over 1 suggests you get more than compensated fo...
Crypto hopium thread: Most people who have a crypto investment mandate are not fully allocated to crypto as they moved to part cash. Hedge funds are underweight. Retail are und...
My working hypothesis is that the US economy cant take real rates above the regression channel and that the average (or fair value) of 5 year real rates is around -1% (150bps lower...
At Madrid airport headed back home to Cayman after an amazing 3 weeks of Valencia, Jávea, Formentera and Ibiza. ❤️ Spain. Anyway, some thoughts on the lending mess in CeFi…1/
Macro Update: When the world's most important collateral, US treasuries, undergo unprecedented volatility, margin calls are everywhere. When the position you borrow to invest in h...
Finally got in front of a Bloomberg at my Mum's house in Spain. Quick crypto update and a macro one to follow... 1/
Macro Views: As Ive talked a lot about, I think we are going into a pretty nasty recession (or are in one). Lay offs are coming as are house price falls. Demand destruction is eve...
I used to be part of the "world is going to shit and is just just a matter of time until..." until I realized it was just an alluring meme. The world is always going to shit and...
A thread about Network Effects and how to value digital assets: For Global Macro Investor, my independent research service, @Remi_Tetot and I spent a long time analysing various o...
The massive rise in food and energy prices have caused an enormous tightening of financial conditions, along with the liquidity issues of de-platforming Russia. The 2/10’s swaps cu...