The general feeling is that the macro is so bad that there needs to be a new low or a re-test of the low.
But my hunch is that the path of MAX PAIN is higher.
Hedge funds are scrambling to buy calls just in case ETH breaks 1800 to 2000. They can not afford Not to participate.
But my hunch is that the path of MAX PAIN is higher.
Hedge funds are scrambling to buy calls just in case ETH breaks 1800 to 2000. They can not afford Not to participate.
Above this level, retail will start to be forced in, along with institutions. 2200 to 2300 is the key one for me...a break of that either happens pre-merge or post-merge.
Once everyone has got back in, the market can correct sharply before rising again based on the macro.
Once everyone has got back in, the market can correct sharply before rising again based on the macro.
The macro is key here. Global M2 is the big macro driver of crypto (the liquidity cycle)...
And it is about to turn... the ISM (inverted) leads it...I think crypto is sniffing out the turn.
Same with inflation - the other bogeyman. ETH is starting to price in the turn in inflation, which I think is correct.
But I cant help but mull over the long term chart of BTC vs the second best performing asset since 2010 - the NDX. The NDX is down 99.9% in relative terms.
It is at key resistance too...
It is at key resistance too...
But the last 3 years have been all about ETH. That has outperformed the NDX by 90% since then.
And that NDX/ETH ratio has put in a DeMark weekly 9-13-9 and suggests a full reversal. ETH should outperform by another 90% over the next few years...
The support should get taken out in due course...
ETH is also breaking out versus BTC...
This is being driven by the superior current network effects and network activity.
Sure, other tokens will outperform ETH but crypto overall will outperform all other assets, in my view.
My hunch is that the market is caught underweight (as it is in equities too) and the path of pain is higher. But, that is just shorter-term thoughts.
The long-term is clear.
My hunch is that the market is caught underweight (as it is in equities too) and the path of pain is higher. But, that is just shorter-term thoughts.
The long-term is clear.
Loading suggestions...