In the next 48 hours, NATO will hold its annual summit. This time it will be hosted by the U.S. in Washington DC. There will be a range of topics discussed, including the war in #Ukraine. But, China's role in supporting Russia may also be a subject of some discussion. 1/11 🧵
2/In June, the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO described how “China has taken a side; China has opted to support Russia through the provision of these dual-use components; and that if it opted to stop doing that, we believe it would have a major impact on Russia’s ability to conduct the war on the ground inside Ukraine.”
3/ But how does China benefit from supporting Russia, and indeed, benefit from a continuation of the war? I think there are three key areas where it does so: strategic, economic and ideological.
4/ Strategic Benefits. The first strategic benefit to China is that the war in #Ukraine is absorbing much of the attention of key strategic decision-makers in the United States. Another strategic benefit for China of a prolonged war in Ukraine is that it provides a gigantic testbed for Chinese ideas about future war in the Pacific.
5/ Economic Benefits. Over the past 28 months since the beginning of the Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine, China’s trade with Russia has increased markedly. Chinese monthly exports have grown from US$3.9 billion to around US$9 billion. China’s massive growth in exports to Russia & purchase of Russian energy, also gives it more leverage over Russia. (Image: @AtlanticCouncil)
6/ Ideological benefits. At the 20th Party Congress in 2022, Xi Jinping described how China remains at threat from external actors, and that the external environment to be getting worse. China clearly sees the opportunity to ideologically cleave more nations – especially those in the so-called Global South – away from American influence.
7/ And with Russia confronting NATO and the west in Ukraine, China does not have to do all the heavy lifting in their broader ideological confrontation with the west. If China is going to convince other nations that it can provide a better design for global prosperity and security than the one provided by America since 1945, it helps to have another major nation on board.
8/ In the early 2000s, China benefitted from the United States focus on counter terrorism operations inside the U.S., as well as the American expeditionary operations into Iraq, Afghanistan and at a smaller scale, Africa. The Chinese Communist Party may see a prolonged war in Ukraine as a similar opportunity.
9/ As such, the Chinese Communist Party & President Xi are probably comfortable with the war continuing for some time. Unfortunately, they appear to have more to gain from its continuance than its ending. As one Russia analyst recently explained, "the war in Ukraine may be a drain on the West’s resources and on the economies of developing countries, but it suits Beijing’s interests just fine."
10/ China’s position on the war will almost certainly be examined at this week’s #NATO Summit. But with China deriving substantial strategic, economic and ideological benefits from the war, a variety of robust diplomatic & economic measures will be needed from Western nations to convince Xi to step back from his support for Russia.
11/ Whether NATO members are willing to take such measures - and whether they could succeed - remains to be seen. Read my full assessment on this issue ($) here: mickryan.substack.com
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