The preparations for #Rafah are in full swing, a ๐งต of the current situation.
Over the past 5 days the Nahal Brigade (933) has continued clearing areas south of the Netzarim Corridor in order to extend the bufferzone, the newly built Israeli bases inside the corridor have also recently been expanded and modernized.
Once these operations are completed the IDF have stated they will replace Nahal with the Carmelite (2) and 679th Brigades, who have now completed the training missions required to prepare them for Gaza.
These 2 reserve brigades will operate under the command of the 99th Division, which has received orders not to participate in the attack on Rafah but to instead guard the corridor.
Already rested and in position at the Tselim Military Base south of Rafah are 5 brigades, 6 once Nahal has completed its work. The IDF will likely also call up additional reserve brigades, but without 99th Division the operation will only include 162nd and 98th Division.
My model says this wouldn't be enough to take even half of Rafah in 3 weeks, either it's wrong or there will be more brigades involved than currently expected, or it will simply take longer.
Evacuation of Rafah: Tent cities have started being established in Khan Yunis and the Al-Mawasi Safe Zone, these will accommodate the evacuees once the evacuation is announced.
Once constructed, the evacuation will begin within the next 2 weeks and will take around a month. NGO employees in Gaza have already received instructions from the IDF to move to Deir al-Balah.
In recent weeks both Egypt and the US have acquiesced to IDF plans for the invasion, there is nothing blocking the path anymore, the timer has started.
Other currently ongoing operations in Gaza: The IDF have launched another raid into Beit Hanoun, operating again primarily on the outskirts. These operations don't usually destroy a lot of houses, it appears the goal is only to degrade Hamas.
(no activity visible at Beit Lahiya yet, despite the recent evacuation notices. Maybe it will be attacked in a raid next week)
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