1/18 What happens to altcoins after the Bitcoin halving takes place?
A thread ๐งต๐
A thread ๐งต๐
2/18 A question that seems to be getting more and more popular these days is the effect of the halving on alts right after the event.
We know the halving isn't far away from now.
On 19th of April the fourth Bitcoin halving will take place.
And it has always been big.
We know the halving isn't far away from now.
On 19th of April the fourth Bitcoin halving will take place.
And it has always been big.
3/18 Some people fear the market will take a tumble first.
Some don't expect much initially and other expect up-only.
But what exactly does history say?
Some don't expect much initially and other expect up-only.
But what exactly does history say?
4/18 I've taken the total altcoin market cap of alts excluding the top 10.
While the top 10 are also considered altcoins, this is the most accurate representation for many of us.
Most of us generational wealth seekers are invested outside of the top 10 for larger gains.
While the top 10 are also considered altcoins, this is the most accurate representation for many of us.
Most of us generational wealth seekers are invested outside of the top 10 for larger gains.
5/18 What happened in 2016?
In 2016 it took about 7-8 months for the altcoin market to really go into the up-only state.
7-8 months ranging with not to much happening.
In 2016 it took about 7-8 months for the altcoin market to really go into the up-only state.
7-8 months ranging with not to much happening.
6/18 What happened in 2020?
In 2020 there was no single downtime for the altcoin market to gradually keep going up.
In 2021 we saw the rise being accelerated but essentially it's gone up ever since the halving took place.
In 2020 there was no single downtime for the altcoin market to gradually keep going up.
In 2021 we saw the rise being accelerated but essentially it's gone up ever since the halving took place.
7/18 What happens in 2024?
This year paints a different situation.
The cycle on both Bitcoin and alts is moving a little bit ahead of the timeline.
We've already seen some modest gains in the overall market cap.
This year paints a different situation.
The cycle on both Bitcoin and alts is moving a little bit ahead of the timeline.
We've already seen some modest gains in the overall market cap.
8/18 Both 2016 and 2020 paint a different picture.
But it has to be noted that in 2016 altcoins weren't a thing yet.
We barely had any projects and outside of Bitcoin it was mostly trash.
Bitcoin was a thing, crypto was not yet.
95%+ BTC dominance confirms this.
But it has to be noted that in 2016 altcoins weren't a thing yet.
We barely had any projects and outside of Bitcoin it was mostly trash.
Bitcoin was a thing, crypto was not yet.
95%+ BTC dominance confirms this.
9/18 Only in 2017 did we start to establish a market for crypto in general.
Meaning 2016 doesn't paint a very accurate picture.
Nonetheless we saw 7-8 months of cooldown after.
In 2020 there was 0 cooldown and crypto was more well known as well.
Meaning 2016 doesn't paint a very accurate picture.
Nonetheless we saw 7-8 months of cooldown after.
In 2020 there was 0 cooldown and crypto was more well known as well.
10/18 However both times in the past when the altcoins market and Bitcoin has started to move up reasonable well the market never took a long cooldown.
Corrections or sideways phases took place but never long.
Corrections or sideways phases took place but never long.
11/18 This leads me to believe we won't see a large cooldown here either.
The cycle has already started.
It's difficult to predict exactly which month the market won't go up-only.
But overall we are past the bear to bull tradition phase already.
The cycle has already started.
It's difficult to predict exactly which month the market won't go up-only.
But overall we are past the bear to bull tradition phase already.
12/18 Meaning we are already on the way up.
With crypto already making its way (slowly) to mainstream media attention again I don't see a stop right now.
BUT we might see some changes to the 1.5 years timeline.
With crypto already making its way (slowly) to mainstream media attention again I don't see a stop right now.
BUT we might see some changes to the 1.5 years timeline.
13/18 If we look at the average lenght of a cycle and we are moving ahead of things.
Purely looking at equal lengths of bull markets we might have about 1 more strong year ahead of us and not 1.5 years.
This is all very theoretically as there are other arguments as well.
Purely looking at equal lengths of bull markets we might have about 1 more strong year ahead of us and not 1.5 years.
This is all very theoretically as there are other arguments as well.
14/18 The Bitcoin ETF brought crypto into uncharted waters and why I still believe we'll have bull and bear phases they might get smaller over time.
The market heavily correlates with Bitcoin and the days of 80% corrections on BTC might also be over.
The market heavily correlates with Bitcoin and the days of 80% corrections on BTC might also be over.
15/18 Bitcoin will still be a volatile asset but the larger it grows, the lower the corrections and rises will be over time.
More liquidity = less volatile.
Bitcoin is basically a globally accepted asset right now.
For all we know the bull timeline lasts longer.
More liquidity = less volatile.
Bitcoin is basically a globally accepted asset right now.
For all we know the bull timeline lasts longer.
16/18 Conclusion
Whatever the outcome of the top in 1 year, 1,5 years or even 2 years.
All that matters is that right now it's highly unlikely for the market to go multiple months into a cooldown phase.
The cycle has already started.
Whatever the outcome of the top in 1 year, 1,5 years or even 2 years.
All that matters is that right now it's highly unlikely for the market to go multiple months into a cooldown phase.
The cycle has already started.
17/18 And every time it started it has continued to go up with only minor pauzes.
Yes we are already further than other halvings but we are also totally not at the end yet.
The next 12 months should at least be very good.
We'll be reevaluating again after
Nova out ๐ค
Yes we are already further than other halvings but we are also totally not at the end yet.
The next 12 months should at least be very good.
We'll be reevaluating again after
Nova out ๐ค
18/18 If you like these threads consider giving me a follow @CryptoGirlNova.
I write guides to make you a better trader including sharing my calls on all trades I take and other life-changing opportunities.
Like/Retweeting the first tweet below would mean a lot to me ๐๐
I write guides to make you a better trader including sharing my calls on all trades I take and other life-changing opportunities.
Like/Retweeting the first tweet below would mean a lot to me ๐๐
18/18 If you like these threads consider giving me a follow @CryptoGirlNova.
I write guides to make you a better trader including sharing my calls on all trades I take and other life-changing opportunities.
Like/Retweeting the first tweet below would mean a lot to me ๐๐
I write guides to make you a better trader including sharing my calls on all trades I take and other life-changing opportunities.
Like/Retweeting the first tweet below would mean a lot to me ๐๐
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