Mini-thread of #Tripoli security & current tensions in the Libyan capital🧵👇🏻

A couple months ago, Stabilization Support Apparatus chief Abdelghani “#Ghnewa” al-Kikli had dinner in Cairo with Aqila Saleh, a vocal foe of Dabaiba.
This could have hinted at Ghnewa’s openness to considering a potential replacement of the GNU w/ some new govt or other.

But the reality is that Ghnewa has never stopped acquiring greater & greater sway on Tripoli’s agencies & ministries.
This progression is really about institutional penetration into technocratic & other administrations — not so much about physical territory and armed might.
On the white-collar front, the GNU years have pretty much let Ghnewa reach near-supremacy in #Tripoli, along with the avalanche of benefits & privileges one can imagine.

Logically & inevitably, Ghnewa’s ongoing rise has stirred resentment among some of the few Tripoli militias not yet 100% aligned with him.
The most notable armed group in that category is #Radaa.
Since Aug, a series of Suq al-Jumaa talks between 444’s Mahmud Hamza & Radaa’s Kara have yielded a pact of nonaggression, which gives Radaa the leeway necessary for the pursuit of its own ambitions.

As of this minute, tensions are high between Ghnewa-aligned Usama #Tleesh’s Facility Security Authority and #Radaa.
Everyone remembers their dispute over Jumhouria Bank several weeks ago.
Now, some form of offensive by Radaa against Usama Tleesh’s assets is a distinct possibility. Somewhere in downtown Tripoli perhaps.

Clash or no clash, the bottom line is that Ghnewa is content with the status quo in Tripoli, sharing numerous interests with Dabaiba.
In fact, between the 2 men, Ghnewa might arguably be the more comfortable one, enjoying even more lavish circumstances right now.
Perhaps too comfortable.

Meanwhile, in GNU’s Tripoli, the much more disciplined Radaa remains a black sheep … busy protecting the CBL’s Kabir and demonstrating its ability to operate without consulting or obeying Dabaiba & his allies.