Richard Moglen
Richard Moglen

@RichardMoglen

19 Tweets 13 reads Dec 25, 2023
The Market Bottomed 40 Days ago
Let's analyze what have been the top opportunities and how they could get on your radar early
I created a scan with basic liquidity restrictions in Deepvue and sorted it by Performance over the past 40 days
Here are the top 150 Results
AAOI MARA AFRM ARVN NAIL ICVX TGTX TWST COIN DPST LABU SOXL TMDX KOLD IMGN RUN RYTM VKTX UPST KRTX CVNA MDGL STNE SQ SNAP FNGU RIOT CERE BYON S BVN DOCN URTY TNA CABA SONO IBP W BLD M CUK ACLX TECL DUOL CCL FOUR PATH SNDX NOVA SHOP TNDM BBIO MHO EXPE TQQQ LYFT CRSP SDGR ROKU GPS PVH BURL BPMC TPG PODD HASI FROG AMKR WAL DAVA SWTX BLDR ZG DOCU NTRA MTH LMND PLAY PINS FAS NCLH RCL YPF ANF GNRC Z TMF TRU AMR RYAAY SLG WIX IOT SSD GTLB MPWR XRX MAC ARKK CBAY GGAL FL NET COHR UBER TXG DDOG TREX U AZEK MNDY SVIX SIG DXCM ARKW ESTC RBLX LGIH BEAM AYX TWLO KKR BBWI VSCO INFA MSTR TOL RGEN AMD CRWD UPRO EXR SPXL METC BOH JLL WING UWM FRPT INTC VNO MKSI DHI FND TRIP X EFX LITE
Keep in mind that many of these are Biotech Gaps up which are not always tradable/catchable but all of these made significant moves.
To trade these names, they first have to get on your radar, so think to yourself what screen/part of your routine identified these type of stocks near or since the start of the cycle.
Be realistic with yourself about when they would have gotten on your radar and how.
Are you running a weekly performance screen, RS Screen, breaking above the 21ema…? When did they meet your technical buy criteria? Could you have managed risk?
Let's Analyze 10 of these moves, when they started, and when you could have entered.
I'll show what they looked like before and during their moves.
We'll cover stocks/etfs that fit the Crypto, Semis, AI, Software, and homebuilder themes.
AAOI - This was the top performance enhancer in the prior market cycle when semis started ripping.
Unless you were focused on it because of the strength of the prior move, likely first actionable spot was after earnings Nov 10. It is up over 100% from the strong bar after the earnings upside reversal
MARA - Bitcoin started a new cycle before stocks and the crypto theme pushed higher early. Here Is what it looked like Nov 2, already at the EMA crossback part of the cycle.
This one was frustrating even after the market bottomed as it chopped and breakout buys would not work until Nov 15. It is up 151% since the Nov 22 Outside Reversal spot
When Crypto is working MARA typically trends so that is one way it would be on your radar. Also looking at stocks above 21ema when market below.
AFRM - Fits the e-commerce theme with PINS SHOP MELI…
Nov 2 wedge pop. This really got going on the kicker candle Nov 27 which showed up out of the tight area. It’s up ~80% from the open area. No real low risk buy points since
NAIL / Homebuilder theme - one of the more rate sensitive themes that reallt changed character with a wedge pop Nov 1
The best spot was Nov 30/Dec 1 from that tight range. Unless you positioned In that prior range in early Nov or got the gap and go. Up 50% from the Dec 1 Breakout day.
TWST - a Biotech name with EPS and Sales
Most actionable spots were either the gap and go on earnings on HV1 or the inside day and up from the tight range. It’s up 45% from that last entry tactic & setup.
COIN also the crypto theme. Nov 1 it was pushing towards the high of the base.
COIN is up 80% from the Nov 17 inside day and up
LABU on nov 1 this was still in a downtrend
I really like that range it formed against the 21ema + 50 sma confluence. Up 60% from that gap up with poor DCR from that range.
SOXL - semis were a leading group. Still in a downtrend nov 2 but pushing up after 3 clean waves down.
From the super tight inside day after pos expectation breaker up 55%.
TMDX had an explosive move after earnings. Was just moving off the bottom Nov 1,2
Up ~33% from the Gap up U turn buy.
UPST has worked well as secondary names got going. This could not push further down after the earning gap
Up ~55% from the first pivot breakout as the stock backtested confluence of 21 ema and 50 sma
CVNA another secondary name that moves with momentum
The TQQQ - 3X QQQ is worth highlighting
Up ~45% since the wedge pop and trending above the 21ema. Up around 17% since 21ema retest.
I hope you found this quick thread and chart annotations of the winners helpful.
If you did please retweet 🔁 this linked tweet
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