Gameweek 15
Including:
💎 Captaincy - A Dark Horse
💎 Goalkeeper’s
💎 Chelsea & Newcastle assets + Defender’s
💎 Aston Villa assets
💎 AFCON & Asia Cup
Midweek Madness…🧵
#FPL

💎 Captaincy - A Dark Horse
Salah or Haaland, Haaland or Salah right?
Fortunately not.
Its been turned into a triple threat match.

You will have own your perspective on AI and specifically this tool, which you are more than entitled too.
However, what is irrefutable, is the success this tool has had this year.
In a season where many, many content creators and engaged managers find themselves outside of the Top 100k;
The “My Team” Hub AI tool does not.
This week, it is suggestive that my theory of a dark horse is indeed correct.
It has attributed 0.1 MORE predicted points to this asset, than Erling Haaland and 0.7 MORE than Mohammed Salah.
It’s yet again, Heung-min Son.

West Ham on paper may not seem like a captain worthy fixture, especially when consideration is given to who Salah is playing (with all due respect).
However, a closer look suggest it just might be.

West Ham have readopted an earlier method of playing, whereby Soucek finds himself loitering higher up the pitch and with a greater sense of freedom to attack in general.
This leaves Ward-Prowse and Alvarez to protect the back line, in what is essentially a double pivot at times.
The issue with this, is that Ward-Prowse is not a deep lying playing.
He is not a duel specialist, he is not capable of stopping quick transitions or dealing with numerical inferiority, nor does he interpret space as a player playing that deep should.
So West Ham repeatedly allow themselves to get hurt.
They suffer from the same thing Bournemouth did earlier in the season, whereby the spaces between the lines are too big.
That’s why teams bypass their initial stages of the press so easily, and it’s why they are conceding to many chances.
It’s neither here nor there. They aren’t fully committing to an idea. Either block passing lanes with the front line, or get both the midfield and back line to step up and go man for man.
They had such a good solution with Paqueta and JWP as rotating 8’s, I don’t know why Moyes changed it.

Spurs are one of the better sides to exploit this.
With their full back’s taking up an 8 like position in possession, they have even more low risk options to beat West Ham’s initial press.
From there, the entire blueprint of the philosophy is to get the ball to the 9’s feet in an advanced and central position.
It’s all for him.
And, if there’s anyone who’s going to repeatedly punish you for letting that happen, it’s Son.
West Ham seem to be primed to be exploited here (4th for Big Chances conceded and Shots conceded, with the zonal analysis suggesting the central spaces to be their weakest).

With regards to Haaland, one factor I like is that after a fairly lethargic and passive performance against Spurs, I imagine the fire will be reignited.
A nice and likely true narrative for captainers.
However, with it likely to be Foden LW, Silva RW & Alvarez + Nunes/Kovacic/Lewis as the 8’s, I’m not very keen.
Especially considering there’s no Rodri.
The speed of ball circulation in the final third when it’s a more patient exploit of the other team decreases, something which City are quite reliant upon.
Their 8’s don’t possess the greatest creative abilities, so I imagine a greater proportion of individual moments will be needed to win this game.
Doku would have been primed for an influential game here.
Haaland will certainly have opportunities to catch Villa’s high line out and the opposition in transition. But, City often seem reluctant to play these balls since he’s come to the club and I don’t see why that would change.
He’s still a good, good asset this week, just not a great one.
His ceiling is somewhat limited compared to usual, and that’s what puts me off.

Salah was very unfortunate not to haul against Fulham.
Partially due to poor execution from himself, partially due to Nunez.
Nonetheless, his last two PL performances have been one’s where the shackles are off a bit.
Less of a need to stay repeatedly wide, more of a need to make his full back’s game a nightmare.
Penetration and drifting into more central spaces and in behind being the major change.
He’s facing a Sheffield United side that aren’t great with all due respect.
The only caveat being, they have had a few decent performances at home, that’s the only thing I’m concerned about (and a little bit about the new manager bounce).
Liverpool could slap them silly, especially if both sides played how they did at the weekend.
I’m not going to delve into the deepest analysis of this fixture and matchup because there’s really no need.
The gulf in quality is there, with all due respect, so there’s a big chance it goes well.
The small chance it doesn’t, should that materialise, is something that’s genuinely plausible, and something you will have to accept if that occurs.
It’s *just* the away factor which is making me a little less confident.
Nonetheless, anything less than a Salah haul I’d consider a disappointment.

💎 Goalkeeper’s
Most of us tried to be cheap, and as is so often in life, it didn’t work.
The Areola + Turner rotation (if you could even call it that), failed miserably.
But, now we have a chance to capitalise on a new opportunity.
Another cheap one!

Three GK options:
Raya (£4.9m)
Sanchez (£4.6m)
Dubravka (£3.9m)
I’m going to be quite dismissive of the Raya idea even though I understand the appeal.
The combination of price + Arsenal’s short term fixtures is what puts me off.

Sanchez is essentially what would be set and forget for a long period of time.
The fixtures are magnificent, and he has a somewhat decent ceiling given the volume of shots Chelsea face.

Dubravka would replace Turner to rotate with Areola.
You can see via the fixture runs below that it works fantastically well, and we get to play the Newcastle man in four of the next five.
Dubravka
Areola
Dubravka
Dubravka
Dubravka
Areola
Areola
Areola
(Dubravka for the next three if he’s still first choice).
Look at the dates of the fixtures as well, even if Newcastle go an get David De Gea let’s say, we won’t have to make this GK transfer until GW23 (or GW20 if you are really fed up of Areola).

Marginally as such, Dubravka is my preference.

💎 Chelsea & Newcastle assets + Defender’s
These two sides possess the best fixture runs for the medium and long term, with regards to the defensive assets.
There are five assets worth discussion:
Reece James
Levi Colwill
Kieran Trippier
Tino Livramento
Jamaal Lascelles

Whilst the combination of having Reece James and Kieran Trippier in your defence is a mouth watering prospect, it is unaffordable for most.
In isolation, I think both assets are with the money, without doubt.
The question with Trippier becomes, can he be covered directly?
The answer is no.
The BPS system is obsessed with him, Trippier is their first love. Then you combine that with the volume of assists he continues to get, and you get an unbelievable asset.
I’ll happily fall on my sword with regards to Trippier, I thought the most optimal approach would have been to avoid him in the past, but I was wrong.
Livramento should be able to match a decent proportion of Trippier’s points, and the money saved will allow you significant upgrades elsewhere.
For that reason I like Livramento, and would suggest a purchase if you are unsure.
A double up is fine, but not what I’d say is optimal.
Lascelles I’d completely avoid given Botman is back in training.

Reece James showed me enough against Newcastle (ironic because he was sent off in a 4-1 defeat), to warrant a selection.
Palmer drifting inside facilitating numerous overlaps for James into advanced positions. The former able to combine well with the full back meaning there’s the potential for him to get beyond the last line (goals).
Colwill likely playing as a LB meaning the structure would be one where it’s difficult to exploit the space he leaves behind when surging up field.
Plus, his general talent from attacking areas is of a high standard.
With regards to his availability, the fact he was suspended has given him a nice rest.
The midweek game against Newcastle in the cup, is one which he can certainly be rested for. Thereby it seems very plausible he starts the next 4/5 Premier League games, as the schedule isn’t as taxing for him.
The reoccurrence of injury is less likely I imagine given a different approach to his recovery, which ultimately appears to have been better.
I’m pretty sure Colwill will start most/all games, and at £4.5m, he’s a gift if that holds to be true.

Dubravka + Colwill > Sanchez + Livramento

💎 Aston Villa assets
Watkins, Diaby & Cash.
These are the three assets which this chapter concerns.
I don’t think any of them, contrary to popular opinion, are priority sells.
Starting with Cash, whilst he got dropped against Bournemouth, I expect him to come back into the side sooner rather than later.
The fixtures he has actually coordinate quite nicely with those of other popular assets.
Including very nice fixtures in both GW18 (SHU (H)) & GW20 (BUR (H)).
Given he provides you with great cover for the blank especially, and would ensure a transfer saved in the long term, I don’t see why he’s super dispensable at this moment.
Diaby is somewhat similar.
From GW18 he looks like a good asset to have again.
So I’d essentially make your decision now, whether you stick or test with him.
The City game is now not as bad considering the players they will be missing, but the other two after that aren’t great, hence my prior statement.
Unlike Cash, I would sway to selling him, especially if you don’t have too many fires in your team.

With regards to Watkins, I think it’s slightly more complicated.
He’s without doubt a very, very good asset in isolation.
The only thing is, more money being invested in the defence seems like a very plausible idea now.
As such, I still see Solanke to be a better asset than him all things considered, given the funds that would be relinquished during the Villa man’s sale.
However, should you not wish to do that, having Watkins as a long term hold should be fine (as long as your cheaper defensive assets come through for you).

💎 AFCON & Asia Cup
In GW21 a few of your assets will be departing for a short while to represent their countries in a major tournament.
As such, I imagine you would rather not have a team full of red flags, so plan!
The likes of Salah, Son & Mbeumo will all be leaving us.
So as an example, you could take 2 FT’s into GW20 and sell Salah before NEW (H), for a MCI asset with a likely DGW. Roll the second into GW21, and then offload Mbeumo + Son, as an example.
You could keep Son and use it elsewhere by distributing Salah’s funds.
But, my point is, just have a rough idea of what you are going to do.
It’s not that far away.
It does not require much brain power nor time to solve this issue. It just requires a small amount of attention and planning for, which I suggest you do.
A disproportionate reward, because there will certainly be some who don’t.
Don’t be one of them.

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