How can Israel and Palestine reach peace?
I'm going to propose something that I haven't seen before
But to make sense of it, we 1st need to understand the pbm: Why haven't they reached peace before?
Because they don't want it hard enough:
I'm going to propose something that I haven't seen before
But to make sense of it, we 1st need to understand the pbm: Why haven't they reached peace before?
Because they don't want it hard enough:
In this previous thread, I describe what peace would look like
We were so close in the 2001 (Taba) and 2009 (Annapolis) negotiations!
Why didn't they sign these agreements?
x.com
We were so close in the 2001 (Taba) and 2009 (Annapolis) negotiations!
Why didn't they sign these agreements?
x.com
Israeli side:
• Ehud Barak (2001) had very low support in Israel and would go on to lose the elections soon after
• Ehud Olmert (2009) had even lower ratings and would resign soon after
Leaders proposing these agreements are unpopular
• Ehud Barak (2001) had very low support in Israel and would go on to lose the elections soon after
• Ehud Olmert (2009) had even lower ratings and would resign soon after
Leaders proposing these agreements are unpopular
In 2014 only 35% of Israelis supported a hypothetical, 2-state peace agreement that was extremely generous to Israel
Just before the latest Hamas attack, only 34% of Israelis supported the 2-state solution
~60% Israelis said the status quo could feasibly continue
Just before the latest Hamas attack, only 34% of Israelis supported the 2-state solution
~60% Israelis said the status quo could feasibly continue
🇮🇱 doesn't believe in a 2-state solution: 🇮🇱's #1 goal: security, but every time they tried giving more autonomy, violence increased:
• 1990s Oslo Accords
• 2nd Intifada after Camp David
• Withdrawal from Gaza➡️Hamas...
🇮🇱doesn't trust Palestinians are willing to live in peace
• 1990s Oslo Accords
• 2nd Intifada after Camp David
• Withdrawal from Gaza➡️Hamas...
🇮🇱doesn't trust Palestinians are willing to live in peace
🇵🇸 side:
Arafat (2001) and Abbas (2009) said they were very close to an agreement, but never signed it. Why? They would have been impossible to sell at home
Agreements would require giving up some West Bank land (border settlements) and most importantly right of return
Arafat (2001) and Abbas (2009) said they were very close to an agreement, but never signed it. Why? They would have been impossible to sell at home
Agreements would require giving up some West Bank land (border settlements) and most importantly right of return
In 2009, Olmert wanted to accept 40k Palestinian refugees max. Abbas wanted 150k. (~3% of the 7M Palestinian refugees, and ~20% original 750k)
But Palestinians *define* themselves by this right of return (see key below). Hard to give up
But Palestinians *define* themselves by this right of return (see key below). Hard to give up
Also 🇵🇸 think 🇮🇱 has promised a lot of times giving more autonomy, but never follows through, & instead controls & humiliates them more, and that's why they have to resort to violence to shake things up.
Only 33% of Palestinians support a 2-state solution
88% say they can’t trust Israeli Jews
60% want to reclaim all of historic Palestine from the river to the sea
51% think it will succeed
66% think Israel will disappear before 2048!
Some quotes from interviews:
88% say they can’t trust Israeli Jews
60% want to reclaim all of historic Palestine from the river to the sea
51% think it will succeed
66% think Israel will disappear before 2048!
Some quotes from interviews:
🇵🇸 education & media frequently reinforce this message. You can find many examples:
• All of Israel belongs to 🇵🇸
• 🇮🇱 concessions are just a stepping stone
• 🇮🇱 should disappear
• Jews should be killed
• All of Israel belongs to 🇵🇸
• 🇮🇱 concessions are just a stepping stone
• 🇮🇱 should disappear
• Jews should be killed
All this creates a vicious cycle:
➕control↔️➕violence
Eg 10/7: Hamas attacks➡️🇮🇱 controls Gaza & WB more➡️Palestinians angrier
Also, 🇮🇱bombs Gaza➡️thousands die➡️➕terrorists are minted➡️➕violence later
➕control↔️➕violence
Eg 10/7: Hamas attacks➡️🇮🇱 controls Gaza & WB more➡️Palestinians angrier
Also, 🇮🇱bombs Gaza➡️thousands die➡️➕terrorists are minted➡️➕violence later
This radicalization happens on both sides. This is the most recent one on the Israeli side:
Why no peace agreement?
• Expectations on both sides are mutually exclusive
• The ppl on both sides wouldn't approve politically feasible deals
• Ppl in🇮🇱don't trust those in🇵🇸
• Many🇵🇸are educated to hate & eradicate🇮🇱
• Cycle of 🇵🇸violence &🇮🇱control
• Expectations on both sides are mutually exclusive
• The ppl on both sides wouldn't approve politically feasible deals
• Ppl in🇮🇱don't trust those in🇵🇸
• Many🇵🇸are educated to hate & eradicate🇮🇱
• Cycle of 🇵🇸violence &🇮🇱control
➡️The ppl on both sides don't want peace hard enough. The status quo was preferable
How can you reach peace when ppl don't want it hard enough?
By making them want it
How?
We've done it before
How can you reach peace when ppl don't want it hard enough?
By making them want it
How?
We've done it before
After WWII, both Germans and Japanese changed their minds radically on their former enemy. They stopped being nationalistic & militaristic, & became peaceful & pro-West instead.
This was the result of a crafted campaign that included education & media reform
This was the result of a crafted campaign that included education & media reform
Curricula were redone
books rewritten
radical educators purged
ppl reeducated
media intervened...
This plus economic & military integration w/ the US turned the populations around
Could we do the same in 🇵🇸🇮🇱?
books rewritten
radical educators purged
ppl reeducated
media intervened...
This plus economic & military integration w/ the US turned the populations around
Could we do the same in 🇵🇸🇮🇱?
The idea would be to put together 🇵🇸,🇮🇱, Arab neighbors & Western powers to agree on a neutral narrative, esp around history & geography
It would be applied to education & media
🇵🇸&🇮🇱might be reluctant, but Arab neighbors & Western powers can make them do it:
It would be applied to education & media
🇵🇸&🇮🇱might be reluctant, but Arab neighbors & Western powers can make them do it:
• Arab neighbors want 🇵🇸 to be more conciliatory. 🇵🇸education is mostly financed by the West (eg UNRWA funds). It should be easy for them to agree to pressure a change in 🇵🇸 media & education
• 🇮🇱 depends on its alliance w/🇺🇸. If 🇺🇸 pressures, 🇮🇱 would prob need to comply
• 🇮🇱 depends on its alliance w/🇺🇸. If 🇺🇸 pressures, 🇮🇱 would prob need to comply
So if Arab neighbors+🇺🇸+🇪🇺 agreed to change 🇵🇸&🇮🇱 education & media to be neutral, they could probably make it happen. This is a group that is already aligned in wanting to pressure 🇵🇸&🇮🇱.
I went to 🇵🇸&🇮🇱 15y ago & came back pessimistic: nobody wanted peace hard enough
Let's try to find peace now. But let's be realistic. We probably won't. 🇵🇸&🇮🇱 don't want it enough.
So let's prepare them so the next generation wants it badly enough
Let's try to find peace now. But let's be realistic. We probably won't. 🇵🇸&🇮🇱 don't want it enough.
So let's prepare them so the next generation wants it badly enough
This is a very complex topic, and I'm sure you have many hesitations about these ideas, so I have much more detail in this week's article:
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
Reply to my 1st tweet with your questions & concerns and I'll reply back
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
Reply to my 1st tweet with your questions & concerns and I'll reply back
I've written a bunch of threads on Israel & Palestine. Follow me to get the next ones
And if you don't want to miss any article, subscribe to my newsletter—it's free
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
And if you don't want to miss any article, subscribe to my newsletter—it's free
unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com
Main Q so far: what about religion?
Jews don’t hate Muslims. There are 2M living in 🇮🇱!
Islam is a spectrum
Hamas fosters radical Islam
Fatah doesn’t
Which one 🇵🇸 follows depends on the influences received➡️education & media
Changing radical imams & rabbis would be useful too
Jews don’t hate Muslims. There are 2M living in 🇮🇱!
Islam is a spectrum
Hamas fosters radical Islam
Fatah doesn’t
Which one 🇵🇸 follows depends on the influences received➡️education & media
Changing radical imams & rabbis would be useful too
Funnily the most ignorant about the conflict are also those who believe the least that this is a good solution
Which proves my point. Thx for supporting me!
Which proves my point. Thx for supporting me!
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