China Kitty Monthly 🧵 courtesy of:
@bubbagumo
@emmasunrise
@GucciCat88
@jin_trade
@joe70995321
@MiFID_Man
@mliehk
@MokJonathan
@ROLCapita
@shwanka
Alumni:
#Jordicalavara
@foxglobalinvest
Cc: @INArteCarloDoss
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@bubbagumo
@emmasunrise
@GucciCat88
@jin_trade
@joe70995321
@MiFID_Man
@mliehk
@MokJonathan
@ROLCapita
@shwanka
Alumni:
#Jordicalavara
@foxglobalinvest
Cc: @INArteCarloDoss
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The dominant August China news flow thematic was financial deterioration.
Its macro continues to weaken, China Garden probably has a managed fail but supports the China R.E. weakness thesis. Beidaihe
offered the promise of stimulus markets craved but it never materialized.
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Its macro continues to weaken, China Garden probably has a managed fail but supports the China R.E. weakness thesis. Beidaihe
offered the promise of stimulus markets craved but it never materialized.
/2
A more balanced view recognizes geopolitical tensions (U.S. & Eurozone), the Chip Acts, weak domestic demand but also policy levers of executive govts.
For investors and particularly longer timeframe investors, China & broader Asia are deeply discounted and on sale.
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For investors and particularly longer timeframe investors, China & broader Asia are deeply discounted and on sale.
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August 3. Policy Boffins hard at work making changes.
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Aug 4. Geopolitical concerns curb enthusiasm for M&A investments. ft.com
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Aug 5. Friend or Foe? An odd public temper tantrum btw friends.
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Aug 7. The unintended consequences of globalisation are broad and deep international supply chains issues. Uncoupling will take time and create pain.
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Aug 7. Stress in China’s Local Govt Financing Vehicles or LGFVs, is facing meaningful.
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Aug 8. Is China at risk of Japanification and the loss of three decades? One supportive thesis here:
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Aug 8. Song “#LUOCHAHAI #CITY" by grassroots folk singer #Daolang goes viral across internet. It draws inspiration from "Strange Stories from a Chinese Studio" to satirise current societal chaos.
Goes viral in China with 8 billion views.
youtube.com
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Goes viral in China with 8 billion views.
youtube.com
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Aug 10. China grapples with real estate fallout joining a long list of countries with similar problems. Policy changes and tweaks enroute.
house.hexun.com
Pro Tip: Hit translate button
/11
house.hexun.com
Pro Tip: Hit translate button
/11
August 11. Inflation vs deflation debate in China. While the current malaise of weak economic performance hinges on weak demand Adam’s thread is worth a read.
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Aug 15. PBOC Adviser Cai Fang Says China Urgently Needs to Boost Consumption
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
/15
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
/15
Aug 15. China Econ data questioned again. While taking no position on the validity of the data, clearly growth is slowing but the overall trajectory suggests continued wealth creation.
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Aug 15. Some sanity from long time China analyst Paul Triolo on Biden’s tech investment Exec. Order.
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Aug 16. Quid Pro Quo China Antitrust Com. veto’s Intel’s acquisition of Israeli semi company Tower.
Expect more Tit for Tat in the escalating chip war.
/18
Expect more Tit for Tat in the escalating chip war.
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Aug 16. China keeps massaging (or not) released economic data.
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
/19
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
/19
Aug 19. In the vane of live local invest globally, a good mini thread from Michael on China real estate. But couldn’t the name China just be replaced with another country and the same malaise and issues exist?
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Aug 20. Given China’s sensitivity to Taiwan, is constant triggering really worthwhile?
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Aug 20. Interesting thread on China’s weakening economy and policy changes, best viewed via the lens of the interrelated flow on effects elsewhere.
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Aug 20. Is this a realistic take on China’s weakman economy? Seems overly simplistic.
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
/24
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
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August 20: “Xi’s senior officials are loyalists to Xi, not subject matter experts”. Expect more poor takes due in one part to tall poppy syndrome & one part rational deduction.
asia.nikkei.com
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asia.nikkei.com
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Aug 20. Sequential development thread with observations from William Hurst, a long time China scholar.
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Aug 21. Pettis’ critique of Stephen Roach’s FT article on China. The underlying FT article worth a read as is Michael’s comments.
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August 23: Nice try but this is exactly the target of the Chips Act. State sponsored development will ruffle feathers no matter how clever the workaround. Huawei trying to circumvent US sanctions
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
/28
#xj4y7vzkg" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">bloomberg.com
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Aug 23. A pragmatic and rational critique of the doomsday, armageddon nonsense on China’s economy.
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Aug 25. Covell’s accurate and timely review of why “Cold War” is an inaccurate lens to view China.
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