š GW1-GW5: Building the Defence
Using @drafthound's clean sheet probabilities (%) to consider goalkeeper & defence options ahead of the GW1 deadline.
šÆ Teams/Targets
š„ Clean Sheet %'s
š Ā£4.5 rotations
šø Ā£4.0 options
š Differentials
#FPL | #FPLCommunity | @OfficialFPL
Using @drafthound's clean sheet probabilities (%) to consider goalkeeper & defence options ahead of the GW1 deadline.
šÆ Teams/Targets
š„ Clean Sheet %'s
š Ā£4.5 rotations
šø Ā£4.0 options
š Differentials
#FPL | #FPLCommunity | @OfficialFPL
š„ ARSENAL
š„ CS%
GW1: NFO (50%) 3rd
GW2: cry (39%) 3rd
GW3 FUL (40%) 3rd
GW4: MUN (36%) 6th
GW5: eve (43%) 2nd
14 clean sheets (2nd) last season but only 4 of those came at home, that said with 3 home matches in that first 5 GWs I'm certainly not put off ARS defence coverage.
š„ CS%
GW1: NFO (50%) 3rd
GW2: cry (39%) 3rd
GW3 FUL (40%) 3rd
GW4: MUN (36%) 6th
GW5: eve (43%) 2nd
14 clean sheets (2nd) last season but only 4 of those came at home, that said with 3 home matches in that first 5 GWs I'm certainly not put off ARS defence coverage.
š My initial reaction was to lean towards RAMSDALE, but with RAYA signed he's one to avoid IMO
GABRIEL now the stand out option. 2nd best xG of all DEF's last season, 10 goals in last 3 seasons. A threat from set pieces
š SALIBA to be considered if you want away from template
GABRIEL now the stand out option. 2nd best xG of all DEF's last season, 10 goals in last 3 seasons. A threat from set pieces
š SALIBA to be considered if you want away from template
š¦ MAN CITY
š„ CS%
GW1: bur (55%) 1st
GW2: NEW (41%) 2nd
GW3: shu (64%) 1st
GW4: FUL (53%) 1st
GW5: whu (53%) 1st
No shock to see MCI fancied for most clean sheets early doors given their fixtures. As always the caveat with MCI will be navigating Pep's rotation..
š„ CS%
GW1: bur (55%) 1st
GW2: NEW (41%) 2nd
GW3: shu (64%) 1st
GW4: FUL (53%) 1st
GW5: whu (53%) 1st
No shock to see MCI fancied for most clean sheets early doors given their fixtures. As always the caveat with MCI will be navigating Pep's rotation..
šÆ STONES for me is the best defensive asset at MCI, a key cog in Pep's structure who offers attacking threat from set pieces & open play, also great on BPS
EDERSON's the xMins pick but better value GKs elsewhere IMO
š GVARDIOL & DIAS could be decent alternatives to Stones
EDERSON's the xMins pick but better value GKs elsewhere IMO
š GVARDIOL & DIAS could be decent alternatives to Stones
š¦ BRIGHTON
š„ CS%
GW1: LUT (55%) 1st
GW2: wol (30%) 7th
GW3: WHU (33%) 7th
GW4: NEW (22%) 12th
GW5: mun (19%) 14th
Those first 2 fixtures are just too appealing, but from GW3 onwards I'm really not so hot on BHA coverage. So I'll likely be looking for BHA assets for short term
š„ CS%
GW1: LUT (55%) 1st
GW2: wol (30%) 7th
GW3: WHU (33%) 7th
GW4: NEW (22%) 12th
GW5: mun (19%) 14th
Those first 2 fixtures are just too appealing, but from GW3 onwards I'm really not so hot on BHA coverage. So I'll likely be looking for BHA assets for short term
š ESTUPINAN currently sits as the highest owned defender in the game with a 50.9% TSB. He had a great second half of last season, ending with 1G/7A. Whilst he's clearly the stand out BHA defender I'm not as high on him as everybody else & open to selling him in GW3/GW4..
š„ MAN UNITED
š„ CS%
GW1: WOL (48%) 4th
GW2: tot (22%) 10th
GW3: NFO (38%) 4th
GW4: ars (16%) 17th
GW5: BHA (19%) 10th
More clean sheets than anybody else last season (17), 11 coming at home. That makes the WOL & NFO fixtures look particularly good for a clean sheet early on..
š„ CS%
GW1: WOL (48%) 4th
GW2: tot (22%) 10th
GW3: NFO (38%) 4th
GW4: ars (16%) 17th
GW5: BHA (19%) 10th
More clean sheets than anybody else last season (17), 11 coming at home. That makes the WOL & NFO fixtures look particularly good for a clean sheet early on..
šÆ ONANA's been sat in my draft since confirming his arrival at Old Trafford. The system ETH wants to put in place will see Onana getting lots of the ball which should equate to some heavy BPS
The obvious alternative to Onana is SHAW who offers attacking returns, but at 0.5 more
The obvious alternative to Onana is SHAW who offers attacking returns, but at 0.5 more
š¦ CHELSEA
š„ CS%
GW1: LIV (25%) 14th
GW2: whu (36%) 5th
GW3: LUT (48%) 2nd
GW4: NFO (40%) 2nd
GW5: bou (38%) 5th
A tricky first game against LIV for Poch, but thereafter there's no denying the CHE appeal with 4 lovely fixtures making up the first 5 gameweeks..
š„ CS%
GW1: LIV (25%) 14th
GW2: whu (36%) 5th
GW3: LUT (48%) 2nd
GW4: NFO (40%) 2nd
GW5: bou (38%) 5th
A tricky first game against LIV for Poch, but thereafter there's no denying the CHE appeal with 4 lovely fixtures making up the first 5 gameweeks..
šÆ I've always loved CHILWELL as an asset, he just loves getting in & around the opposition box. He's had a great pre season & ready to go - a better option to the injury prone JAMES
The arrival of SANCHEZ also one to monitor, he could provide us with some great value at Ā£4.5!
The arrival of SANCHEZ also one to monitor, he could provide us with some great value at Ā£4.5!
š„ LIVERPOOL
š„ CS%
GW1: che (29%) 10th
GW2: BOU (43%) 1st
GW3: new (28%) 10th
GW4: AVL (38%) 3rd
GW5: wol (39%) 3rd
Despite a messy front end to last season, LIV finished the season strong. Through the campaign they conceded 103 big chances yet managed 14 clean sheets (2nd)..
š„ CS%
GW1: che (29%) 10th
GW2: BOU (43%) 1st
GW3: new (28%) 10th
GW4: AVL (38%) 3rd
GW5: wol (39%) 3rd
Despite a messy front end to last season, LIV finished the season strong. Through the campaign they conceded 103 big chances yet managed 14 clean sheets (2nd)..
šÆ There's no secret in TAA's attacking potential, he finished 22/23 like the Trent of old & that inverted role had me excited to own this season. But with talk he could now play a deeper 6 role, it's hard to justify the Ā£8.0 tag..
š I also like Alisson as a set & forget option
š I also like Alisson as a set & forget option
š§¤ FAVOURED Ā£4.5 GK's
šŖ Johnstone (CS%)
GW1: SHU (36%)
GW2: ARS (16%)
GW3: BRE (21%)
GW4: WOL (34%)
GW5: AVL (22%)
Since Hodgson returned to Selhurst GW29 last year, CRY conceded the least NPxGA (8.9) & were 4th best for goals Conceded (11), tho fixtures were very favourable.
šŖ Johnstone (CS%)
GW1: SHU (36%)
GW2: ARS (16%)
GW3: BRE (21%)
GW4: WOL (34%)
GW5: AVL (22%)
Since Hodgson returned to Selhurst GW29 last year, CRY conceded the least NPxGA (8.9) & were 4th best for goals Conceded (11), tho fixtures were very favourable.
š§¤ FAVOURED Ā£4.5 GK's
š¦ Pickford (CS%)
GW1: FUL (36%)
GW2: avl (18%)
GW3: WOL (26%)
GW4: shu (28%)
GW5: ARS (13%)
š„ Flekken (CS%)
GW1: TOT (23%)
GW2: ful (25%)
GW3: CRY (34%)
GW4: BOU (37%)
GW5: new (20%)
Sanchez (CHE) & Steele (BHA) also two names worth putting in the hat.
š¦ Pickford (CS%)
GW1: FUL (36%)
GW2: avl (18%)
GW3: WOL (26%)
GW4: shu (28%)
GW5: ARS (13%)
š„ Flekken (CS%)
GW1: TOT (23%)
GW2: ful (25%)
GW3: CRY (34%)
GW4: BOU (37%)
GW5: new (20%)
Sanchez (CHE) & Steele (BHA) also two names worth putting in the hat.
š§¤ Ā£4.5/Ā£4.0 KEEPER ROTATION
š¦ Pickford (EVE)
š„ Turner (Should be sign for NFO)
šļø Fixtures (CS%)
GW1: š¦ FUL (36%) 6th
GW2: š„ SHU (33%) 6th
GW3: š¦ WOL (26%) 11th
GW4: š¦ shu (28%) 9th
GW5: š„ BUR (26%) 9th
Just need to wait for the 'Matt Turner, Here we go' now! š±
š¦ Pickford (EVE)
š„ Turner (Should be sign for NFO)
šļø Fixtures (CS%)
GW1: š¦ FUL (36%) 6th
GW2: š„ SHU (33%) 6th
GW3: š¦ WOL (26%) 11th
GW4: š¦ shu (28%) 9th
GW5: š„ BUR (26%) 9th
Just need to wait for the 'Matt Turner, Here we go' now! š±
š”ļø Ā£4.5m DEFENCE ROTATION
šŖ Aston Villa
š„ Crystal Palace
šļø Fixtures (CS%)
GW1: š„ shu (36%) 6th
GW2: šŖ EVE (38%) 4th
GW3: šŖ bur (37%) 5th
GW4: š„ WOL (34%) 7th
GW5: šŖ CRY (36%) 7th
šÆ Favoured Targets
šŖ Pau, Cash
š„ Anderson, Guehi. Hall about to join CRY from CHE?
šŖ Aston Villa
š„ Crystal Palace
šļø Fixtures (CS%)
GW1: š„ shu (36%) 6th
GW2: šŖ EVE (38%) 4th
GW3: šŖ bur (37%) 5th
GW4: š„ WOL (34%) 7th
GW5: šŖ CRY (36%) 7th
šÆ Favoured Targets
šŖ Pau, Cash
š„ Anderson, Guehi. Hall about to join CRY from CHE?
šø THE Ā£4.0 BENCH FODDER
GK:
š„ Matt Turner to NFO from ARS?
DEF:
š§ Bell (LUT)
š§ Kabore (LUT)
š„ Baldock (SHU)
šŖ Beyer (BUR)
šŖ Al Dakhil (BUR)
Given that LUT/BUR blank GW2 it probably makes Baldock the most sensible option but my preferred pick is Kabore as things stand.
GK:
š„ Matt Turner to NFO from ARS?
DEF:
š§ Bell (LUT)
š§ Kabore (LUT)
š„ Baldock (SHU)
šŖ Beyer (BUR)
šŖ Al Dakhil (BUR)
Given that LUT/BUR blank GW2 it probably makes Baldock the most sensible option but my preferred pick is Kabore as things stand.
š§¤ GK PREDICTED PTS GW1-GW3
1ļøā£ Ederson (Ā£5.5) 11.3
2ļøā£ Ramsdale (Ā£5.0) 10.0
3ļøā£ Steele (Ā£4.5) 9.9
4ļøā£ Kepa (Ā£5.0) 9.4
5ļøā£ Allison (Ā£5.5) 9.0
š± Full list:
drafthound.com
1ļøā£ Ederson (Ā£5.5) 11.3
2ļøā£ Ramsdale (Ā£5.0) 10.0
3ļøā£ Steele (Ā£4.5) 9.9
4ļøā£ Kepa (Ā£5.0) 9.4
5ļøā£ Allison (Ā£5.5) 9.0
š± Full list:
drafthound.com
š”ļø DEF PREDICTED PTS GW1-GW3
1ļøā£ Alexander-Arnold (Ā£8.0) 14.7
2ļøā£ Stones (Ā£5.5) 13.5
3ļøā£ Dias (Ā£5.5) 13.4
4ļøā£ Estupinan (Ā£5.0) 13.4
5ļøā£ Robertson (Ā£6.5) 12.9
6ļøā£ Gabriel (Ā£5.0) 12.6
š± Full List:
drafthound.com
1ļøā£ Alexander-Arnold (Ā£8.0) 14.7
2ļøā£ Stones (Ā£5.5) 13.5
3ļøā£ Dias (Ā£5.5) 13.4
4ļøā£ Estupinan (Ā£5.0) 13.4
5ļøā£ Robertson (Ā£6.5) 12.9
6ļøā£ Gabriel (Ā£5.0) 12.6
š± Full List:
drafthound.com
š GK/DEF POINTS PER GAME 22/23
ā”ļø Over 1000+ Mins Only
š§¤ GK
1ļøā£ Henderson 4.6
2ļøā£ Raya 4.4
3ļøā£ Alisson 4.4
4ļøā£ Steele 4.3
5ļøā£ Pope 4.2
š”ļø DEF
1ļøā£ Trippier 5.2
2ļøā£ Saliba 4.3
3ļøā£ Cancelo 4.3
4ļøā£ Alexander-Arnold 4.2
5ļøā£ White 4.1
ā”ļø Over 1000+ Mins Only
š§¤ GK
1ļøā£ Henderson 4.6
2ļøā£ Raya 4.4
3ļøā£ Alisson 4.4
4ļøā£ Steele 4.3
5ļøā£ Pope 4.2
š”ļø DEF
1ļøā£ Trippier 5.2
2ļøā£ Saliba 4.3
3ļøā£ Cancelo 4.3
4ļøā£ Alexander-Arnold 4.2
5ļøā£ White 4.1
š
EARLY FIXTURE SWINGS
Swings I'm keeping an eye on..
ā¬ TOT (GW3-GW11)
bou,bur,SHU,ars,LIV,lut,FUL,cry
š Watchlist:
Porro (Ā£5.0), Udogie (Ā£4.5), Royal (Ā£4.5)
ā¬ NEW (GW5-GW12)
BRE,shu,BUR,whu,CRY,wol,ARS,bou
š Watchlist:
Botman (Ā£4.5), Trippier (Ā£6.5), Shar (Ā£5.0)
Swings I'm keeping an eye on..
ā¬ TOT (GW3-GW11)
bou,bur,SHU,ars,LIV,lut,FUL,cry
š Watchlist:
Porro (Ā£5.0), Udogie (Ā£4.5), Royal (Ā£4.5)
ā¬ NEW (GW5-GW12)
BRE,shu,BUR,whu,CRY,wol,ARS,bou
š Watchlist:
Botman (Ā£4.5), Trippier (Ā£6.5), Shar (Ā£5.0)
šļø MY CURRENT DEFENCE SET UP
GK: Onana
DEF: Gabriel
DEF: Estupinan
DEF: Stones
BENCH: Turner, Chilwell, Kabore
A pretty template look to my current back line ahead of the new season, but the fixtures quite simply speak for themselves.
But how will I cope with the Trent FOMO?
GK: Onana
DEF: Gabriel
DEF: Estupinan
DEF: Stones
BENCH: Turner, Chilwell, Kabore
A pretty template look to my current back line ahead of the new season, but the fixtures quite simply speak for themselves.
But how will I cope with the Trent FOMO?
š DEF WATCHLIST
TAA: If he picks up where he left off, it might be tricky getting him but I'd want him
Moreno: Think he's in for a good FPL season when back from injury
Lewis Hall: If he gets the CRY move
Botman/Schar: From GW5
Colwill: A cheap route into the CHE defence?
TAA: If he picks up where he left off, it might be tricky getting him but I'd want him
Moreno: Think he's in for a good FPL season when back from injury
Lewis Hall: If he gets the CRY move
Botman/Schar: From GW5
Colwill: A cheap route into the CHE defence?
Lastly, a shout out to @fplmerch at @LazyFPL who collects hours of FPL research & condenses it into a fun, 4-minute email that's sent out 24hrs before every deadline. And it's absolutely free!
Subscribe now using the link below! ā¤µļø
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Subscribe now using the link below! ā¤µļø
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