1/ On 72,000 hours
Is that a lot?
Is that a little?
Is that a high % of your life?
What can you do with 72,000 hours?
Will any of this matter in a world of AI?
Is the very nature of life going to change?
Is that a lot?
Is that a little?
Is that a high % of your life?
What can you do with 72,000 hours?
Will any of this matter in a world of AI?
Is the very nature of life going to change?
2/ It is summertime in Europe.
"Everyone" is in the Mediterranean - Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the islands, large and small.
The sun is shining. The sea is shimmering.
The Aperol Spritz, Prosecco, Mythos are cold.
"Everyone" is in the Mediterranean - Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the islands, large and small.
The sun is shining. The sea is shimmering.
The Aperol Spritz, Prosecco, Mythos are cold.
3/ Mediterranean countries are really world-class at the "relaxed restaurant-cafe in a quaint historic pedestrianized area" format.
You can sit outside and watch people for hours.
So what do you see?
You can sit outside and watch people for hours.
So what do you see?
4/ Some little kids - 2 boys and a girl - playing "red light, green light"
They run, they freeze, they scream, their parents shush them, an old guy looks at them from a window and makes some indeterminable noises
They run, they freeze, they scream, their parents shush them, an old guy looks at them from a window and makes some indeterminable noises
5/ A little toddler.
Waddling along, a mango (?) gelato all over his face, and his shirt, and his pants.
He walks too close to a scooter, mom dashes to grab him, dad gets a lecture for not paying attention.
Waddling along, a mango (?) gelato all over his face, and his shirt, and his pants.
He walks too close to a scooter, mom dashes to grab him, dad gets a lecture for not paying attention.
6/ pre-teens. teenagers. "young adults"
in any case, people liberated from their parents at least in the context of the pedestrianized area.
what are they doing? flirting, bragging, weird social games. we've all been teenagers. we know.
in any case, people liberated from their parents at least in the context of the pedestrianized area.
what are they doing? flirting, bragging, weird social games. we've all been teenagers. we know.
7/ The young couples, aged 20 to 30-something, no kids.
They are the apex lifestyle consumers of the group. a cute restaurant. a highly ranked one. instagram poses.
life is easy. have another drink.
They are the apex lifestyle consumers of the group. a cute restaurant. a highly ranked one. instagram poses.
life is easy. have another drink.
8/ the parents of young kids. well, lol.
"watch out for the scooter"
"why is your cone on the floor"
"why did you lick your sister's face?"
"no, it is not funny that she is crying now"
"watch out for the scooter"
"why is your cone on the floor"
"why did you lick your sister's face?"
"no, it is not funny that she is crying now"
9/ The empty nesters. starting to show their age. weight starting to pile on. they want to show a glimmer of nightlife edge but it fades out.
"where did your kid go to university"
"contractors are impossible these days"
"yeah, the doctor put me on glucophage"
"where did your kid go to university"
"contractors are impossible these days"
"yeah, the doctor put me on glucophage"
10/ The senior citizens. oh boy. knees hurt. back hurts. eyes and ears don't work like they did. they move cautiously.
some hide it better than others, but it is always there, the underlying caution in their movements.
some hide it better than others, but it is always there, the underlying caution in their movements.
11/ ok, so what? what is with the cliche "slice of life" tweets?
You know what none of these people are doing?
Working!
An 80 year life is 700,800 hours.
An career is, optimistically, 72,000 hours
90% of our time is spent "not working"
You know what none of these people are doing?
Working!
An 80 year life is 700,800 hours.
An career is, optimistically, 72,000 hours
90% of our time is spent "not working"
12/ Here is the math.
Let's say you are productively employed aged 25 to 65, for about 45 weeks per year and have 8 hours of work per day.
That is 72,000 hours.
I have managed thousands of people. I consider this a highly optimistic number.
Let's say you are productively employed aged 25 to 65, for about 45 weeks per year and have 8 hours of work per day.
That is 72,000 hours.
I have managed thousands of people. I consider this a highly optimistic number.
13/ Most people overestimate how many hours of actual work they do
It is very easy to spend 8 hours / day in the office
It is much harder to focus those 8 hours on actual work. eating, checking twitter, calling your wife, talking to your colleague about the game are not "work"
It is very easy to spend 8 hours / day in the office
It is much harder to focus those 8 hours on actual work. eating, checking twitter, calling your wife, talking to your colleague about the game are not "work"
14/ The number is, for sure, lower than 72,000. But whether it is 40,000 or 50,000 or 60,000 or, sure, mr hustle, 90,000 hours, it does not change the fundamental point.
humans are a wildly inefficient mechanism for getting "work" done.
humans are a wildly inefficient mechanism for getting "work" done.
15/ We need approximately 20 to 25 years from birth to be able to do anything moderately productive.
The last 10-20 years are often spent running to doctors.
Even "in your prime", you have to sleep, eat, shower, and keep yourself alive AND
The last 10-20 years are often spent running to doctors.
Even "in your prime", you have to sleep, eat, shower, and keep yourself alive AND
16/ take care of all the non-work items: run a household (call the plumber), make and raise children, keep your parents from "falling and not being able to get up" and developing a deep emotional, romantic, and intellectual relationship with your partner.
also: pets
also: pets
17/ Wait, isn't this what makes us human? Of course, it is wonderful.
This is the human experience. Life is short and then you die and you can't let these experiences pass.
This is the human experience. Life is short and then you die and you can't let these experiences pass.
18/ What I am saying is something different.
Once the AIs can do a reasonably good job at a mid-management white collar job, we (the humans) are finished as generic white collar workers, as we know them today.
Once the AIs can do a reasonably good job at a mid-management white collar job, we (the humans) are finished as generic white collar workers, as we know them today.
19/ This has nothing to do with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) or ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence).
What will come first is AMMI (Artificial Middle Manager Intelligence).
We are not far from this, even if you are a pessimist about AGI or ASI
What will come first is AMMI (Artificial Middle Manager Intelligence).
We are not far from this, even if you are a pessimist about AGI or ASI
20/ I don't know if "close" is 24 months or 7 years (sama has not let me into the lab), but it is something like that.
And 5 / 10 / 15 years later, the physical professions too.
And 5 / 10 / 15 years later, the physical professions too.
21/ Once we hit AMMI, then the economics of:
âś… raising
âś…educating
âś…feeding,
âś…housing
âś…mating
âś…keeping healthy a human in order for them to contribute "accounts payable processing" to society will be laughably wrong.
âś… raising
âś…educating
âś…feeding,
âś…housing
âś…mating
âś…keeping healthy a human in order for them to contribute "accounts payable processing" to society will be laughably wrong.
22/ Will there be transitional periods? regulations? setbacks? new job roles? other uses for human judgement and humanity?
sure all that, but it is still a 1-way street.
the core white collar middle class of a developed economy is about to get transformed.
sure all that, but it is still a 1-way street.
the core white collar middle class of a developed economy is about to get transformed.
23/ Sounds bad!
No, I am not sure it is. AMMI will be a productivity enhancer. It makes societies richer, the pie larger. It is positive sum.
We should be able to use it to make humanity better.
But it won't be like it is today.
No, I am not sure it is. AMMI will be a productivity enhancer. It makes societies richer, the pie larger. It is positive sum.
We should be able to use it to make humanity better.
But it won't be like it is today.
24/ In Summer 2023, nobody really believes any of this.
Summer in Europe is going to be like it has been for decades; in some areas, like it has been for centuries.
The assumption is that 2033 and 2043 and 2053 will be something like the past.
Summer in Europe is going to be like it has been for decades; in some areas, like it has been for centuries.
The assumption is that 2033 and 2043 and 2053 will be something like the past.
25/ But that is not true
And you, anon?
We already discussed that life (700K hrs) is short
Working life (72K hrs)?
Well that is very short, even without AI about to tag into the ring.
And you, anon?
We already discussed that life (700K hrs) is short
Working life (72K hrs)?
Well that is very short, even without AI about to tag into the ring.
26/ You are overestimating how much time you have in your career.
Sometimes you have to keep a job for practical reasons. OK, understood.
But if you want to do something that you are proud of, that matters to you, time is very very short and then one day runs out
Sometimes you have to keep a job for practical reasons. OK, understood.
But if you want to do something that you are proud of, that matters to you, time is very very short and then one day runs out
27/ So when you can, if you can, do the thing you want to do. if need be, on the side.
and if you can, if you have the talent, be bold.
you are underestimating how much change will happen in the next 25 years.
we need good people engaged in this change, with positive visions
and if you can, if you have the talent, be bold.
you are underestimating how much change will happen in the next 25 years.
we need good people engaged in this change, with positive visions
28/ I have been a "Kurzweilian" for a long time. My friends know all about it.
I have theoretically believed the things I believe today for a long time.
But this summer, I do not theoretically believe them, I believe them in my gut
I have theoretically believed the things I believe today for a long time.
But this summer, I do not theoretically believe them, I believe them in my gut
29/ I also might have a gelato (hopefully not on my shirt).
and I might also smile at the little kids in the street.
but in my heart I am ready for a great adventure that is about to begin.
we are about to live history
and I might also smile at the little kids in the street.
but in my heart I am ready for a great adventure that is about to begin.
we are about to live history
30/ AI will play a huge role.
Crypto will play a huge role
And biotech and robotics and all the usual suspects.
"industrial revolutions" are big deals but this one might be the biggest one of all.
So get your gelato and LFG.
Crypto will play a huge role
And biotech and robotics and all the usual suspects.
"industrial revolutions" are big deals but this one might be the biggest one of all.
So get your gelato and LFG.
31/ If it is your first time here, well, yeah, we don't think the future should be a centralized dsytopia and we have the tools to avoid that *right now*
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