#Sweden’s pandemic…..looking the myths around it.
What is, isn’t and might be true about what happened between 2020-22…..
Thread/🧵
What is, isn’t and might be true about what happened between 2020-22…..
Thread/🧵
Myth#1
Sweden did nothing, or let it rip.
False. Mostly driven by recommendations but people did reduce contacts mostly in reaction to the situation on the ground. Flatten the curve was the daily message from the authorities in 2020….
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Sweden did nothing, or let it rip.
False. Mostly driven by recommendations but people did reduce contacts mostly in reaction to the situation on the ground. Flatten the curve was the daily message from the authorities in 2020….
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Myth#2
Sweden followed the Great Barrington Declaration strategy.
False. Setting aside Sweden’s pandemic response predates GBD this does not stand up to scrutiny.
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Sweden followed the Great Barrington Declaration strategy.
False. Setting aside Sweden’s pandemic response predates GBD this does not stand up to scrutiny.
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Myth #3
Sweden changed strategy in winter 20/21 or even locked down.
False. There were some extra measures in wave 2 but no stay home orders, mask mandates etc. Bars, restaurants, shops, schools <=16 always open to some degree. No criminalisation of meeting friends/family.
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Sweden changed strategy in winter 20/21 or even locked down.
False. There were some extra measures in wave 2 but no stay home orders, mask mandates etc. Bars, restaurants, shops, schools <=16 always open to some degree. No criminalisation of meeting friends/family.
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A timeline of measures etc to mid 2021 can be found in here, in the supplementary materials.
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sciencedirect.com
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sciencedirect.com
Myth#4
Sweden had a far higher pandemic death toll than its neighbours.
False. If you only count deaths with or from Covid then yes. But over 200k people die in Scandinavia each year. Covid is a fraction of that.
Instead we need to count all cause ‘excess deaths’….
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Sweden had a far higher pandemic death toll than its neighbours.
False. If you only count deaths with or from Covid then yes. But over 200k people die in Scandinavia each year. Covid is a fraction of that.
Instead we need to count all cause ‘excess deaths’….
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In summary, Sweden has one of the lowest excess total mortality estimates in Europe for 2020-22.
This by the way has been confirmed by the Norwegian Public Health Authority recently:
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This by the way has been confirmed by the Norwegian Public Health Authority recently:
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Norway is indeed an interesting comparison if we want to look at causes of death. The two countries have very similar pandemic excess mortality outcomes and vaccination rates but their ‘Covid death’ rates differ dramatically.
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And regarding mortality the ultimate metric is probably Life Expectancy which is calculated similarly to age standardised mortality rates ( ASMR ).
Sweden very well placed. When we get more European countries data for 2022 unlikely any will beat the Nordics. Maybe NZ or Oz.
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Sweden very well placed. When we get more European countries data for 2022 unlikely any will beat the Nordics. Maybe NZ or Oz.
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Myth#5
Most Swedes were infected before being vaccinated.
Likely false. Seroprevalence and PCR studies in 20/21 suggested some early clusters of high spread in Stockholm suburbs and among young adults in the city. But generally it was not so high.
folkhalsomyndigheten.se
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Most Swedes were infected before being vaccinated.
Likely false. Seroprevalence and PCR studies in 20/21 suggested some early clusters of high spread in Stockholm suburbs and among young adults in the city. But generally it was not so high.
folkhalsomyndigheten.se
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Myth#6
Sweden did not rely on the mRNA vaccinations.
False. About 95% of the vaccines used in Sweden were mRNA and of that the vast majority were Pfizer. About 80% of adults took the primary course and the majority of elderly have now had 5 doses, so 3 boosters.
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Sweden did not rely on the mRNA vaccinations.
False. About 95% of the vaccines used in Sweden were mRNA and of that the vast majority were Pfizer. About 80% of adults took the primary course and the majority of elderly have now had 5 doses, so 3 boosters.
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Myth#7
The vaccines and/or Covid have harmed young adults.
False. Sweden is an outlier in Western Europe terms of excess mortality in young adults. Some speculate the lack of lockdowns and fear narrative might be a factor.
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The vaccines and/or Covid have harmed young adults.
False. Sweden is an outlier in Western Europe terms of excess mortality in young adults. Some speculate the lack of lockdowns and fear narrative might be a factor.
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Myth#8
Sweden’s children have seen a diabetes spike as a result of the virus.
Unproven. There is a spike in young children but it is unclear if that started in 2019 or 2020…
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Sweden’s children have seen a diabetes spike as a result of the virus.
Unproven. There is a spike in young children but it is unclear if that started in 2019 or 2020…
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Myth#9
Long Covid is a major problem in Sweden.
Unproven. Setting aside the issues with defining it, a good metric may be long term sick leave. I found that there is an increase in this as you go up in age groups but whether this is Covid related or otherwise is unclear.
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Long Covid is a major problem in Sweden.
Unproven. Setting aside the issues with defining it, a good metric may be long term sick leave. I found that there is an increase in this as you go up in age groups but whether this is Covid related or otherwise is unclear.
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Myth#10
Sweden’s response was perfect/disastrous.
False. Nothing is ever black or white. The ( slightly premature IMO ) Corona commission stated the non lockdown/coercive strategy was fundamentally right but there were issues such as being slow to react to some situations.
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Sweden’s response was perfect/disastrous.
False. Nothing is ever black or white. The ( slightly premature IMO ) Corona commission stated the non lockdown/coercive strategy was fundamentally right but there were issues such as being slow to react to some situations.
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