Thread:
#MorganStanley Report on Bharat's Economy has come as shot in arm for #ModiGovt which is constantly under criticism by so-called GREAT Economists like Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram & RR Rajan!
Let me give you it's observations without going into technicalities!
1/16
#MorganStanley Report on Bharat's Economy has come as shot in arm for #ModiGovt which is constantly under criticism by so-called GREAT Economists like Manmohan Singh, Chidambaram & RR Rajan!
Let me give you it's observations without going into technicalities!
1/16
India is transformed in less than a decade: Morgan Stanley!
It's report says: India has changed in many ways in less than a decade under the leadership of PM @narendramodi . At the same time, it is moving towards achieving a place in the world system.
2/16
It's report says: India has changed in many ways in less than a decade under the leadership of PM @narendramodi . At the same time, it is moving towards achieving a place in the world system.
2/16
#MorganStanley has highlighted number of Positive Changes taken place in Bharat in last 9 years.
It's observations:
🔸India is poised to play an Imp role in Asian & Global growth.
🔸THIS India is different from 2013 & has carved its niche in World Order in just 10 years.
3/16
It's observations:
🔸India is poised to play an Imp role in Asian & Global growth.
🔸THIS India is different from 2013 & has carved its niche in World Order in just 10 years.
3/16
10 major changes by PM Modi Ji which contributed to Bharat's Rise SINCE 2014 as per report:
🔸Supply-side Policy Reforms
🔸Formalisation of the Economy
🔸Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act
🔸Digitalizing Social Transfers (DBT)
🔸Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code
4/16
🔸Supply-side Policy Reforms
🔸Formalisation of the Economy
🔸Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act
🔸Digitalizing Social Transfers (DBT)
🔸Insolvency & Bankruptcy Code
4/16
🔸Flexible Inflation Targeting
🔸Focus on FDI
🔸India's 401(k) Moment (qualified retirement plan, which means it is eligible for special tax benefits)
🔸Government Support for Corporate Profits (PLI Schemes)
🔸MNC Sentiment at Multi-year High (Ease of Doing Business)
5/16
🔸Focus on FDI
🔸India's 401(k) Moment (qualified retirement plan, which means it is eligible for special tax benefits)
🔸Government Support for Corporate Profits (PLI Schemes)
🔸MNC Sentiment at Multi-year High (Ease of Doing Business)
5/16
Result of these Changes:
🔸Corporate tax rate made at par with other countries
🔸Infra Investment⬆️
🔸GST Collection continuously⬆️
🔸Digital transactions as a % of GDP⬆️, which is a sign of Oganized Economy.
🔸⬆️ in Recoveries & ⬇️in NPAs strengthening Banking Sector
6/16
🔸Corporate tax rate made at par with other countries
🔸Infra Investment⬆️
🔸GST Collection continuously⬆️
🔸Digital transactions as a % of GDP⬆️, which is a sign of Oganized Economy.
🔸⬆️ in Recoveries & ⬇️in NPAs strengthening Banking Sector
6/16
10 Implications as per #MorganStanley :
🔸Manufacturing & Capex as % of GDP to⬆️steadily: Share of both expected to⬆️in GDP by approx 5ppt by 2031
🔸Export market share to Double:
India's export market share(goods & services)expected to⬆️to 4.5% by 2031, nearly 2x wrt 2021
7/16
🔸Manufacturing & Capex as % of GDP to⬆️steadily: Share of both expected to⬆️in GDP by approx 5ppt by 2031
🔸Export market share to Double:
India's export market share(goods & services)expected to⬆️to 4.5% by 2031, nearly 2x wrt 2021
7/16
🔸Major shift in consumption basket: As India's per capita income increases from US$2200 currently to about US$5200 by 2032, this will have major implications for change in consumption basket, with an impetus to discretionary consumption.
8/16
8/16
🔸Lower volatility in inflation & shallower interest rate cycles: Inflation expected to remain benign & less volatile, which would imply shallower rate cycles. Shallower rate cycles could also imply more benign equity market cycles.
9/16
9/16
🔸India's structural transformation will feed into saving-investment dynamics, implying gains for its external balance sheet & narrower trend in CAD
🔸India's beta to EM has⬇️to 0.6 due to improved macro stability & less dependence on global capital market flows to fund CAD
10/16
🔸India's beta to EM has⬇️to 0.6 due to improved macro stability & less dependence on global capital market flows to fund CAD
10/16
🔸Share of Profits in GDP has doubled from all-time lows hit in 2020 and are set to rise further – maybe even double from here – leading to strong absolute and relative earnings. This explains India's apparently rich headline equity valuations.
11/16
11/16
🔸⬇️share of Foreign Portfolio in Current Account funding has⬇️
stock market's (-)ve return correlation with oil prices, Even
when oil prices⬆️
🔸India's reliance on global capital market flows has⬇️, means market sensitivity to US recession & US Fed rate changes is fading
12/16
stock market's (-)ve return correlation with oil prices, Even
when oil prices⬆️
🔸India's reliance on global capital market flows has⬇️, means market sensitivity to US recession & US Fed rate changes is fading
12/16
🔸Valuation re-rating: This reflects persistent domestic demand for stocks and higher growth for longer. India is trading at a premium to long-term
history, albeit well off highs and in line with recent history.
These are excerpts directly from #MorganStanley Report.
13/16
history, albeit well off highs and in line with recent history.
These are excerpts directly from #MorganStanley Report.
13/16
The report also highlights KEY RISKS:
🔸Global Recession
🔸Fragmented 2024 General Election Result (that's why, you must vote wisely)
🔸Sharp⬆️in commodity prices due to supply outages & shortages
(now Guess why Rahul Gandhi's started recent Nautanki with Truck Drivers)
14/16
🔸Global Recession
🔸Fragmented 2024 General Election Result (that's why, you must vote wisely)
🔸Sharp⬆️in commodity prices due to supply outages & shortages
(now Guess why Rahul Gandhi's started recent Nautanki with Truck Drivers)
14/16
It's correctly said that Lies spread faster than Truth, but ultimately Truth Prevails.
This #MorganStanley Report has proved it once again.
Will CONgress & MSM jump 1% of how they jumped over #HindenburgReport?
And Hense proved! Manmohan is Economist & Modi is Chaiwala!!
15/16
This #MorganStanley Report has proved it once again.
Will CONgress & MSM jump 1% of how they jumped over #HindenburgReport?
And Hense proved! Manmohan is Economist & Modi is Chaiwala!!
15/16
I request you to retweet max as my account is heavily reported to kill my reach for exposing lies & agenda of Anti-Bharat forces. So pls retweet max if you agree with my above information. We can break such False Narratives ONLY by showing unity. Thank all in advance 🙏
16/16
16/16
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