Thread for all Questions I received about Madhya Pradesh Elections -
1. Who will win ??
BJP will win. Current vote share wise situation in state -
BJP : 43%
INC : 40%
BSP : 4%
AAP : 3%
SP + JAYS + Bhim Army : 2%
GGP : 1.5%
IND : 5.5%
NOTA : 1%
BJP is likely to cross majority on its own. The margin can be debated but currently it is ahead of Congress.
1. Who will win ??
BJP will win. Current vote share wise situation in state -
BJP : 43%
INC : 40%
BSP : 4%
AAP : 3%
SP + JAYS + Bhim Army : 2%
GGP : 1.5%
IND : 5.5%
NOTA : 1%
BJP is likely to cross majority on its own. The margin can be debated but currently it is ahead of Congress.
2. How BJP can win when they lost Municipal Polls?
BJP faced some big setbacks in Mayor Elections only & that also because of one reason which I can’t say openly here as it will lead to unnecessary discussions.
In Ward-Wise Election which are held on party symbols BJP won landslide victory in both rural & urban areas with 60%+ strike rate.
Overall BJP’s voteshare was more than Congress in these elections. In case of Karnataka & Himachal Pradesh BJP lost these wardwise local elections by huge margin. So don’t compare Karnataka & Madhya Pradesh.
BJP faced some big setbacks in Mayor Elections only & that also because of one reason which I can’t say openly here as it will lead to unnecessary discussions.
In Ward-Wise Election which are held on party symbols BJP won landslide victory in both rural & urban areas with 60%+ strike rate.
Overall BJP’s voteshare was more than Congress in these elections. In case of Karnataka & Himachal Pradesh BJP lost these wardwise local elections by huge margin. So don’t compare Karnataka & Madhya Pradesh.
3. Upbeat Congress after Karnataka Victory is Dangerous??
The landslide victory often results in over-confidence which is dangerous for the Congress party itself.
Shivraj Chouhan is silently working & bringing back old BJP leaders who were unhappy. On top of that 9 seats BJP will win only because of Scindia loyalists who have manpower & resources to win on their own.
Secondly RSS is strong in Madhya Pradesh & BJP-RSS has strong network unlike in Karnataka. Plus is Madhya Pradesh there is proper dose of both Development & Hindutva unlike Karnataka where things were unbalanced.
The landslide victory often results in over-confidence which is dangerous for the Congress party itself.
Shivraj Chouhan is silently working & bringing back old BJP leaders who were unhappy. On top of that 9 seats BJP will win only because of Scindia loyalists who have manpower & resources to win on their own.
Secondly RSS is strong in Madhya Pradesh & BJP-RSS has strong network unlike in Karnataka. Plus is Madhya Pradesh there is proper dose of both Development & Hindutva unlike Karnataka where things were unbalanced.
4. What will be fate of Scindia camp loyalists who won in 2020 bypolls ?? Are his loyalists trouble??
BJP is winning 9 out of those 18 seats today easily. It can win another 3 with new candidates. However in another 6 seats it will face defeat.
They aren’t much trouble for BJP as their base is primarily in Congress votebank. Even if they rebel they won’t dent BJP’s votes.
Plus Scindia is useful to BJP. BJP lost due to him only in 2018 as good number young voters preferred him. This time Kamalnath is CM candidate which will help BJP.
BJP is winning 9 out of those 18 seats today easily. It can win another 3 with new candidates. However in another 6 seats it will face defeat.
They aren’t much trouble for BJP as their base is primarily in Congress votebank. Even if they rebel they won’t dent BJP’s votes.
Plus Scindia is useful to BJP. BJP lost due to him only in 2018 as good number young voters preferred him. This time Kamalnath is CM candidate which will help BJP.
5. Will freebie culture dent BJP??
Mamaji is known for freebies in Madhya Pradesh. Just google or search our handle & you will understand the schemes he is running. He will also add one or two additional schemes in manifesto.
In Karnataka also BJP lost only 0.35% votebank despite massive announcements by Congress. Do note in Karnataka 60%+ electorate was always against BJP. In Madhya Pradesh BJP’s vote share is always 40%+ even in worst case scenario.
Mamaji is known for freebies in Madhya Pradesh. Just google or search our handle & you will understand the schemes he is running. He will also add one or two additional schemes in manifesto.
In Karnataka also BJP lost only 0.35% votebank despite massive announcements by Congress. Do note in Karnataka 60%+ electorate was always against BJP. In Madhya Pradesh BJP’s vote share is always 40%+ even in worst case scenario.
6. Why BJP continues with Shivraj Chouhan ?? Why not Scindia??
First of all don’t trust everthing you read on social media at face value. He is the most popular CM face of BJP. Scindia will also get opportunity when time is right.
The majority of the ones opposing him on Twitter have something common in their bio & DP. Won’t add much. You can add dots.
On ground Shivraj Chouhan is still most popular face of BJP & enjoys RSS backing. He proved his worth in 2021 bypolls which BJP won only due to his work & campaign.
Majority of OBCs, tribals, Rajputs, linguistic minorities & Baniyas are backing him heavily. Majority of Muslims, SCs, Brahmins & Sikhs are with Congress. This is ground feedback.
Shivraj Chouhan also improved his image through tough actions & law-order is way better than Kamalnath’s Govt.
First of all don’t trust everthing you read on social media at face value. He is the most popular CM face of BJP. Scindia will also get opportunity when time is right.
The majority of the ones opposing him on Twitter have something common in their bio & DP. Won’t add much. You can add dots.
On ground Shivraj Chouhan is still most popular face of BJP & enjoys RSS backing. He proved his worth in 2021 bypolls which BJP won only due to his work & campaign.
Majority of OBCs, tribals, Rajputs, linguistic minorities & Baniyas are backing him heavily. Majority of Muslims, SCs, Brahmins & Sikhs are with Congress. This is ground feedback.
Shivraj Chouhan also improved his image through tough actions & law-order is way better than Kamalnath’s Govt.
7. Why BJP lost in 2018??
Sometimes we have best yet we want to try something new. Same thing happened in 2018. People were not angry , they just wanted to try something.
Within an year almost everyone had a regret as they all schemes were shut which people still remember & it largely affected women so these manifesto promises of Congress won’t work much.
Sometimes we have best yet we want to try something new. Same thing happened in 2018. People were not angry , they just wanted to try something.
Within an year almost everyone had a regret as they all schemes were shut which people still remember & it largely affected women so these manifesto promises of Congress won’t work much.
8. What if it becomes direct contest with both major parties polling 90% share??
It is impossible for both BJP & Congress to poll 90% votes. Even in Himachal Pradesh which is small state & has no other parties these two parties could poll only 89% vote share.
In Madhya Pradesh, BSP , GGP will poll good amount of SC & ST votes as they have decent candidates & in the areas of their influence BJP is usually weak so it is unlikely their voters will join Congress as BJP is usually a 30% in those seats.
In these 3-4 way contested BJP will win good number of seats. Whenever there is three way contests BJP is biggest beneficiary. Even last time BJP won 24 such seats against Congress’s 19 seats.
It is impossible for both BJP & Congress to poll 90% votes. Even in Himachal Pradesh which is small state & has no other parties these two parties could poll only 89% vote share.
In Madhya Pradesh, BSP , GGP will poll good amount of SC & ST votes as they have decent candidates & in the areas of their influence BJP is usually weak so it is unlikely their voters will join Congress as BJP is usually a 30% in those seats.
In these 3-4 way contested BJP will win good number of seats. Whenever there is three way contests BJP is biggest beneficiary. Even last time BJP won 24 such seats against Congress’s 19 seats.
With this thread I have answered majority of the questions I received in last 2-3 months. Will keep providing all news updates from all three poll bound states.
Have correctly predicted outcome of last 9 out of 10 elections despite my personal liking.
Follow our handle if you like our content.
Have correctly predicted outcome of last 9 out of 10 elections despite my personal liking.
Follow our handle if you like our content.
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