Time for a new thread from "Karl," the Estonian military analyst. As told to @holger_r and myself:
"Today we can say with certainty that the success of the Russian winter offensive was extremely limited. In the area around Bakhmut, they advanced on a 10-15 kilometer-wide area. That is all the success they achieved."
"Elsewhere, the frontline remained either completely unchanged -- at Kupyansk and Kreminna in the northern direction and at Vuhledar to the south. Or they advanced by a few kilometers: for example, at Avdiivka, at Marjinka. This is a very meager advance compared to the losses the…
"At the moment, we waiting for the start of the Ukrainian offensive. The events of the last week indicate that this time is near. Systematic attacks on Russian fuel depots is a clear sign that an offensive is being planned. Russian logistics are difficult when there is no fuel…
"Ukraine has 15-20 brigades, which have had over half a year of proper training in war conditions. This is a considerable number, which can certainly achieve a breakthrough on certain fronts. If they break through the defenses, the Russian front may collapse as it did in Kharkiv…
"A major Ukrainian ground assault should be preceded by strikes against Russian airfields. The goal would be to get the Russian air force down so they would have to start coming from farther away than the airfields near the front. This would be a clear sign that the time for a…
"Whether this will happen in a month or a few weeks is anyone's guess. When a serious maneuver starts, we will know about it. I think there will be disguised attempts. They will start attacking from direction X, to see if Russian bring in additional units. If they don't, Ukraine…
"If you look at the map, Russia will have to take a longer route to bring in units than the Ukrainians will have to travel. This gives Ukraine a couple of days' advantage once the maneuvering gets going."
"What is the expectation of the Ukrainian offensive operation? The liberation of territory. The biggest prize would be winning back southern Ukraine, Melitopol. And severing the land link with Crimea."
"Luhansk and Kharkiv in the north are an option for Ukraine. I can't rule out Ukraine trying to fortify the Dnipro River, but I don't think that is very likely. Success could also be achieved in Donetsk. While Melitopol is still 60-70 km away from the frontline, the centre of…
"Political context: I believe the Western allies' support will certainly hold at least as long as there is hope that the summer offensive will bring military success and Ukraine will be able to liberate territory."
"The only person showing signs that make me worried is Macron with his visit to China and his grossly unsuccessful message that Taiwan is not a European problem. Also his talk about the strategic autonomy of Europe, which was a poorly chosen criticism of the U.S. China is not the…
"Russian attempts to get more support from China have not had much effect. Politically, China is more likely to support the Russians, but arms and technology assistance have come in very limited quantities. There has been no arms in any serious form."
"In the context of the Russian politics, nothing has changed. So far the domestic situation is under the control of the Russian political elite. There is no sign of major shifts in society. It's a brainwashed and imperialist society, where at least until the next major defeat,…
"The only period when Putin's public support dropped was September-October, when there was the first round of mobilization. But maybe Putin also doesn't have the full picture of how difficult the situation for Russians really is. Perhaps he is hoping for an immediate breakthrough…
"I wouldn't pay too much attention to Prigozhin's video. No independent unit of Prigozhin can fight without being supplied with weapons and officers by Russian army. These units are still under general command, not operating separately. His statements may indicate moderate…
On the drone strike at the Kremlin: "I'm 99% sure it wasn't the Ukrainians. It may have been organised by Russia itself to mobilize society. Or it could have been representatives of the security structures outside the control of the Russian authorities. Usually information about…
"Zelenskyy rejected Ukrainian involvement outright. Usually the Ukrainians fudge it: somebody was smoking, etc. Their tactic is not to reject, not to embrace. This time Zelensky clearly rejected it."
"On Russia's military situation... The offensive capability is exhausted. How strong is the defensive capability, we will see when the Ukrainian attack starts. It is easier to defend. According to one version, the Russian military leadership is trying to make it clear that it is…
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