2024 Lok Sabha Prediction for Maharashtra
NDA : 29-36
(BJP : 24-28 | SS : 5-8)
MVA : 12-19
(NCP : 5-7 | INC : 4-5 | SSUBT : 4-6 | VBA : 0-1)
NDA can win 75% seats as 7 tough seats are likely to go to NDA once PM Modi campaigns.
NDA : 29-36
(BJP : 24-28 | SS : 5-8)
MVA : 12-19
(NCP : 5-7 | INC : 4-5 | SSUBT : 4-6 | VBA : 0-1)
NDA can win 75% seats as 7 tough seats are likely to go to NDA once PM Modi campaigns.
NDA is gaining from Modi factor largely despite anti-incumbency against local leaders.
Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is likely to win more seats than Uddhav Thackeray’s SSUBT.
If by chance BJP manages to execute Operation Kamala then Congress tally will be 0.
Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is likely to win more seats than Uddhav Thackeray’s SSUBT.
If by chance BJP manages to execute Operation Kamala then Congress tally will be 0.
1. Nandurbar
This constituency was stronghold of Congress once but after delimitation demography favours BJP more.
It should be noted Shiv Sena got weak here in last decade. Even in 2014 during Assembly polls BJP polled 30% votes.BJP& its rebels polled almost 43% votes in 2019
This constituency was stronghold of Congress once but after delimitation demography favours BJP more.
It should be noted Shiv Sena got weak here in last decade. Even in 2014 during Assembly polls BJP polled 30% votes.BJP& its rebels polled almost 43% votes in 2019
From MVA Congress will contest this seat but it is unlikely to regain it as Modi factor is supreme for locals. They have complaints against local elements but they say केंद्रमध्ये मोदीजी हवे आम्हाला.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
2. Dhule
This is one area where BJP won local polls in rural areas even when MVA was ruling state. Large number of Congressis shifted to BJP here.
Here AIMIM will contest for sure as they have two MLAs. Expect them to poll 3-5% votes & election will be polarised for sure.
This is one area where BJP won local polls in rural areas even when MVA was ruling state. Large number of Congressis shifted to BJP here.
Here AIMIM will contest for sure as they have two MLAs. Expect them to poll 3-5% votes & election will be polarised for sure.
BJP will win on basis of strong cadre base & polarization.
Prediction - BJP Win.
Prediction - BJP Win.
3. Jalgaon
BJP is currently safe here despite Uddhav Sena having its strong pockets in some pockets. Eknath Shinde has successfully secured support of majority of SS cadre. BJP will benefit from their support.
BJP is currently safe here despite Uddhav Sena having its strong pockets in some pockets. Eknath Shinde has successfully secured support of majority of SS cadre. BJP will benefit from their support.
I realised while interacting with locals that BJP will retain this seat thanks to MODI factor.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
4. Raver
In current situation this seat will be contested between Raksha Khade (BJP) & Rohini Khadse(NCP). There is a possibility that one close confidant of Devendra Fadnavis might get the ticket.
In current situation this seat will be contested between Raksha Khade (BJP) & Rohini Khadse(NCP). There is a possibility that one close confidant of Devendra Fadnavis might get the ticket.
In either scenario BJP is ahead of NCP due to strong base & margin should be 50k-70k.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
5. Buldhana
SA will contest this seat as sitting MP & majority of SS cadre is with BSS & BJP's loyal base of 30% is backing them.
It will be a close contest as VBA which has strong base of 7-10% votes is likely to back NCP/Uddhav Sena here.
Prediction : 50:50 (Edge to BSS).
SA will contest this seat as sitting MP & majority of SS cadre is with BSS & BJP's loyal base of 30% is backing them.
It will be a close contest as VBA which has strong base of 7-10% votes is likely to back NCP/Uddhav Sena here.
Prediction : 50:50 (Edge to BSS).
6. Akola
MVA might leave this seat for VBA’s Prakash Ambedkar as VBA has strong base here & if he contests independently there is no chance of MVA winning. This seat has large number of Buddhists & Muslims which makes it demographically tough seat for BJP.
Prediction : 50:50.
MVA might leave this seat for VBA’s Prakash Ambedkar as VBA has strong base here & if he contests independently there is no chance of MVA winning. This seat has large number of Buddhists & Muslims which makes it demographically tough seat for BJP.
Prediction : 50:50.
7. Amravati
BJP is expected to field Navneet Kaur Rana here. Prahar Party Chief Bacchu Kadu wields influence in 3 seats here but it is known to public that he is not in good terms with Navneet's husband.
BJP is expected to field Navneet Kaur Rana here. Prahar Party Chief Bacchu Kadu wields influence in 3 seats here but it is known to public that he is not in good terms with Navneet's husband.
If he backs her on Fadnavis's request it might bring BJP in contest or else this seat will mostly go to Congress.
Prediction : INC Win
Prediction : INC Win
8. Wardha
Its BJP V/s Congress straight contest here. All other parties have minimal presence.
BJP has huge votebank base here & it lost this seat in past only when there were three way contests. People are happy with BJP here.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Its BJP V/s Congress straight contest here. All other parties have minimal presence.
BJP has huge votebank base here & it lost this seat in past only when there were three way contests. People are happy with BJP here.
Prediction : BJP Win.
9. Ramtek
SS is likely to contest it & field its sitting MP Krupal Tumane & Congress might field Sunil Kedar here.
Here BJP is main force & united Shiv Sena was also minor player here.
If SS candidate contests on BJP symbol he will have the edge.
Prediction : INC Win.
SS is likely to contest it & field its sitting MP Krupal Tumane & Congress might field Sunil Kedar here.
Here BJP is main force & united Shiv Sena was also minor player here.
If SS candidate contests on BJP symbol he will have the edge.
Prediction : INC Win.
10. Nagpur
BJP is strong here due to urban demography & Nitin Gadkari's image makes this one sided contest.
Prediction : BJP Win.
BJP is strong here due to urban demography & Nitin Gadkari's image makes this one sided contest.
Prediction : BJP Win.
11. Bhandara Gondiya
Congress President Nana Patole or NCP might get this seat. Irrespective of the candidate BJP will win this constituency due to favourable demography & development work done during its tenure.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Congress President Nana Patole or NCP might get this seat. Irrespective of the candidate BJP will win this constituency due to favourable demography & development work done during its tenure.
Prediction : BJP Win.
12. Gadhchiroli (ST)
Last time BJP won this seat due to VBA Candidate who polled 10% votes who were mainly anti-BJP votes. This time contest will be neck to neck. Tribal outreach by BJP & PM Modi should help it here.
Prediction : 50:50 (Edge to INC)
Last time BJP won this seat due to VBA Candidate who polled 10% votes who were mainly anti-BJP votes. This time contest will be neck to neck. Tribal outreach by BJP & PM Modi should help it here.
Prediction : 50:50 (Edge to INC)
13. Chandrapur
Congress won only this seat in 2019 & it is likely to retain this seat as the demography suits it. BJP won it in 2009 & 2014 as Chatap Wamanrao polled substantial votes. Chatap is likely to contest as BRS candidate. If BRS is able to fund him then he may end up
Congress won only this seat in 2019 & it is likely to retain this seat as the demography suits it. BJP won it in 2009 & 2014 as Chatap Wamanrao polled substantial votes. Chatap is likely to contest as BRS candidate. If BRS is able to fund him then he may end up
splitting Congress's votes.
Prediction : INC Win.
Prediction : INC Win.
14. Yavatmal Washim
Shiv Sena will lock horns against SSUBT here & SS is currently ahead due to work done by local MLAs & BJP’s support.
Prediction : SS Win.
Shiv Sena will lock horns against SSUBT here & SS is currently ahead due to work done by local MLAs & BJP’s support.
Prediction : SS Win.
15. Hingoli
Again SS V/S SSUBT contest. Congress has good presence here & their support might just end up securing win for SSUBT.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
Again SS V/S SSUBT contest. Congress has good presence here & their support might just end up securing win for SSUBT.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
16. Nanded
BJP won this seat due to VBA candidate splitting almost 14% votes. The VBA base has shifted to Congress again & Ashok Chavan will snatch this seat.
It will be Ashok Chavan's victory & not Congress victory.
Prediction : INC Win.
BJP won this seat due to VBA candidate splitting almost 14% votes. The VBA base has shifted to Congress again & Ashok Chavan will snatch this seat.
It will be Ashok Chavan's victory & not Congress victory.
Prediction : INC Win.
17. Parbhani
This constituency has around 18-24% Muslim voters & NCP is pretty strong due to its cadre.
Sitting SS MP is unlikely to win this seat unless there is a split in Muslim votes like 2019 polls.
Prediction : NCP Win.
This constituency has around 18-24% Muslim voters & NCP is pretty strong due to its cadre.
Sitting SS MP is unlikely to win this seat unless there is a split in Muslim votes like 2019 polls.
Prediction : NCP Win.
18. Jalna
Union Minister Raosaheb Danve Patil is sitting BJP MP. This constituency is now BJP's fort & work done by Raosaheb will help him in retaining this constituency.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Union Minister Raosaheb Danve Patil is sitting BJP MP. This constituency is now BJP's fort & work done by Raosaheb will help him in retaining this constituency.
Prediction : BJP Win.
19. Aurangabad
AIMIM won this seat due to SS rebel who polled nearly 25% votes. That rebel Harshwardhan Jadhav has already declared support to likely SSUBT candidate Chandrakant Khaire.
AIMIM won this seat due to SS rebel who polled nearly 25% votes. That rebel Harshwardhan Jadhav has already declared support to likely SSUBT candidate Chandrakant Khaire.
From NDA it is still unclear who will contest. AIMIM candidate won't retain but it is sure he will poll 10% votes. This seat will polarised contest so even Uddhav loyalists will back NDA candidate as Muslims are around 38-45% here.
Prediction : NDA Win.
Prediction : NDA Win.
20. Dindori
Union Minister Bharati Pawar will face tough fight from NCP but she will win due to Modi factor & CPM candidate who will certainly poll 6-8% votes.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Union Minister Bharati Pawar will face tough fight from NCP but she will win due to Modi factor & CPM candidate who will certainly poll 6-8% votes.
Prediction : BJP Win.
21. Nashik
This seat is held by SS but mostly BJP will contest it as Uddhav faction is still strong here. IND MLA Advocate Kokate Shivajirao who was in BJP in past might get the ticket. He has his own voters & with Shinde-MNS backing BJP should win.
Prediction : BJP Win
This seat is held by SS but mostly BJP will contest it as Uddhav faction is still strong here. IND MLA Advocate Kokate Shivajirao who was in BJP in past might get the ticket. He has his own voters & with Shinde-MNS backing BJP should win.
Prediction : BJP Win
22. Palghar
This seat will see SS V/S BVA V/S SSUBT triangular contest in current scenario. BVA is strong & they will be runner up mostly & possibly throw SSUBT to third positon. There is anti-incumbency but with BJP's backing SS will retain.
Prediction : SS Win.
This seat will see SS V/S BVA V/S SSUBT triangular contest in current scenario. BVA is strong & they will be runner up mostly & possibly throw SSUBT to third positon. There is anti-incumbency but with BJP's backing SS will retain.
Prediction : SS Win.
23. Bhiwandi
BJP & SSUBT are likely to face each other. In the present scenario there will be close contest as Muslim voters who are approx 25% will back it.
Prediction : 50:50.
BJP & SSUBT are likely to face each other. In the present scenario there will be close contest as Muslim voters who are approx 25% will back it.
Prediction : 50:50.
24. Kalyan
This seat is held by SS MP Shrikant Shinde but BJP’s Naik family member will mostly get NDA ticket. Naik family's own popularity & SS-MNS support will make it easy for BJP. Won't be surprised if SSUBT falls below 30% vote share here.
Prediction : BJP Win
This seat is held by SS MP Shrikant Shinde but BJP’s Naik family member will mostly get NDA ticket. Naik family's own popularity & SS-MNS support will make it easy for BJP. Won't be surprised if SSUBT falls below 30% vote share here.
Prediction : BJP Win
25. Thane
This is Eknath Shinde's bastion & with BJP that is equally strong SS candidate Shrikant Shinde will win.
Prediction : SS Win.
This is Eknath Shinde's bastion & with BJP that is equally strong SS candidate Shrikant Shinde will win.
Prediction : SS Win.
26. Mumbai North
This is BJP's bastion & mostly Congress would contest here but they will struggle to cross even 25%.
Prediction : BJP Win.
This is BJP's bastion & mostly Congress would contest here but they will struggle to cross even 25%.
Prediction : BJP Win.
27. Mumbai North West
If like last time INC fields Sanjay Nirupam then Marathis will back SS. Sitting SS MP Gajanan Kirtikar is likely to be replaced due to his age & mostly SSUBT will win due to its cadre which is still strong & support of Muslims.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
If like last time INC fields Sanjay Nirupam then Marathis will back SS. Sitting SS MP Gajanan Kirtikar is likely to be replaced due to his age & mostly SSUBT will win due to its cadre which is still strong & support of Muslims.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
28. Mumbai North East
SSUBT's Sunil Raut/ Snajay Patil expected to contest against BJP's Manoj Kotak/ Kirit Somaiya. This will be a close contest as they will try to turn this election into Marathi V/S Gujarati.
Prediction : 50:50.
SSUBT's Sunil Raut/ Snajay Patil expected to contest against BJP's Manoj Kotak/ Kirit Somaiya. This will be a close contest as they will try to turn this election into Marathi V/S Gujarati.
Prediction : 50:50.
29. Mumbai North Central
BJP's Poonam Mahajan is expected to face her old rival Congress's Priya Dutt. Erstwhile Shiv Sena voters are still backing Poonam Mahajan & not BJP so she should eventually retain this seat on account of her personal rapport with Sena voters, Modi
BJP's Poonam Mahajan is expected to face her old rival Congress's Priya Dutt. Erstwhile Shiv Sena voters are still backing Poonam Mahajan & not BJP so she should eventually retain this seat on account of her personal rapport with Sena voters, Modi
factor & polarisation in certain pockets
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
30. Mumbai South Central
It is unclear as both Congress & SSUBT have strong claim on this seat. Mostly SSUBT will contest & they are ahead of BSS MP Rahul Shewale due to Muslim voters & their Marathi voterbase.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
It is unclear as both Congress & SSUBT have strong claim on this seat. Mostly SSUBT will contest & they are ahead of BSS MP Rahul Shewale due to Muslim voters & their Marathi voterbase.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
31. Mumbai South
Any common clean imaged candidate on BJP ticket will win this ticket. BJP has good number of voters & with Modi factor we can expect them to cross winning line.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Any common clean imaged candidate on BJP ticket will win this ticket. BJP has good number of voters & with Modi factor we can expect them to cross winning line.
Prediction : BJP Win.
32. Raigad
Here BJP is not having much presence but SS is strong as majority are with Eknath Shinde. SS is expected to contest against NCP's Sunil Tatkare.
He is unlikely to lose due to support of Uddhav faction which is weak yet they have 13% votes here.
Prediction : NCP Win.
Here BJP is not having much presence but SS is strong as majority are with Eknath Shinde. SS is expected to contest against NCP's Sunil Tatkare.
He is unlikely to lose due to support of Uddhav faction which is weak yet they have 13% votes here.
Prediction : NCP Win.
33. Maval
Another BSS V/s NCP contest. Last time NCP lost this seat despite Ajit Pawar's son candidature.
Despite backing of Uddhav faction NCP won't retain as locals are happy with BJP & with BSS's support BJP will retain this constituency.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Another BSS V/s NCP contest. Last time NCP lost this seat despite Ajit Pawar's son candidature.
Despite backing of Uddhav faction NCP won't retain as locals are happy with BJP & with BSS's support BJP will retain this constituency.
Prediction : BJP Win.
34. Pune
This is largely urban constituency & one can expect BJP to win due to infrastructure work completed & loyal demography . Sitting MP Girish Bapat will be replaced due to his poor health.
Prediction : BJP Win.
This is largely urban constituency & one can expect BJP to win due to infrastructure work completed & loyal demography . Sitting MP Girish Bapat will be replaced due to his poor health.
Prediction : BJP Win.
35. Baramati
It seems BJP is making inroads by poaching workers of other parties. It is unclear who will contest from BJP & Supriya Sule is likely to regain by 50k votes because the lead she gains from Baramati segment makes it almost impossible for BJP
Prediction : NCP Win.
It seems BJP is making inroads by poaching workers of other parties. It is unclear who will contest from BJP & Supriya Sule is likely to regain by 50k votes because the lead she gains from Baramati segment makes it almost impossible for BJP
Prediction : NCP Win.
36. Shirur
Here both NCP & SSUBT are strong. SS is expected to contest this constituency.
As of now NCP is in position to win this constituency.
Prediction : NCP Win.
Here both NCP & SSUBT are strong. SS is expected to contest this constituency.
As of now NCP is in position to win this constituency.
Prediction : NCP Win.
37. Ahmednagar
BJP will win this seat as they have popular candidate in Sujay Vikhe Patil & its strong cadre base. BJP polled 40% votes in this constituency in 2014 Assembly polls when it fought on its own. NCP can field Nilesh Lanke here.
Prediction : BJP Win.
BJP will win this seat as they have popular candidate in Sujay Vikhe Patil & its strong cadre base. BJP polled 40% votes in this constituency in 2014 Assembly polls when it fought on its own. NCP can field Nilesh Lanke here.
Prediction : BJP Win.
38. Shirdi
Current MP is from SS but I think BJP might contest as when I interacted with people there was hardly any mention of BSS here.
Congress will contest from MVA & they are likely to gain in 3 segments but BJP's margin in
Current MP is from SS but I think BJP might contest as when I interacted with people there was hardly any mention of BSS here.
Congress will contest from MVA & they are likely to gain in 3 segments but BJP's margin in
Shirdi segment will be good enough to help them sail through.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
39. Beed
The contest will be between BJP's Pritam Munde & NCP. If NCP fields Dhananjay Munde BJP might run into trouble but he isn't preparing for LS poll.
Any other Candidate from NCP will give close fight but not enough to win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
The contest will be between BJP's Pritam Munde & NCP. If NCP fields Dhananjay Munde BJP might run into trouble but he isn't preparing for LS poll.
Any other Candidate from NCP will give close fight but not enough to win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
40. Osmanabad
SS will mostly contest this seat against SSUBT.
Due to backing of NCP SSUBT should win this constituency as BJP is not that strong currently & division in Sena vote makes it easy for Uddhav camp.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
SS will mostly contest this seat against SSUBT.
Due to backing of NCP SSUBT should win this constituency as BJP is not that strong currently & division in Sena vote makes it easy for Uddhav camp.
Prediction : SSUBT Win.
41. Latur
Here BJP is strong & anti-incumbency is against MVA as they failed to solve any issue during their regime. Congress might be tempted to field someone from Vilasrao Deshmukh family but family members won't like to contest.
Here BJP is strong & anti-incumbency is against MVA as they failed to solve any issue during their regime. Congress might be tempted to field someone from Vilasrao Deshmukh family but family members won't like to contest.
Moreover there are other things which can't be said openly here.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
42. Solapur
There is good presence of Lingayat voters here who back BJP mostly. BJP will replace its sitting MP due to caste certificate issue.
From Congress Praniti Shinde might get candidature. 6 out of 10 voters I interacted with are in BJP's favour.
Prediction : BJP Win.
There is good presence of Lingayat voters here who back BJP mostly. BJP will replace its sitting MP due to caste certificate issue.
From Congress Praniti Shinde might get candidature. 6 out of 10 voters I interacted with are in BJP's favour.
Prediction : BJP Win.
43. Madha
BJP might change its Candidate here from what I'm hearing. It was represented by Sharad Pawar in past due to strong NCP base. BJP MLC Ranjitsinh Mohite Patil will be best candidate as he can bring some extra votes needed to cross finishing line.
Prediction : 50:50.
BJP might change its Candidate here from what I'm hearing. It was represented by Sharad Pawar in past due to strong NCP base. BJP MLC Ranjitsinh Mohite Patil will be best candidate as he can bring some extra votes needed to cross finishing line.
Prediction : 50:50.
44. Sangli
Sitting BJP MP Sanjaykaka Patil or firebrand BJP leader Gopichand Padalkar might get ticket. Padalkar's popularity can be judged from the fact that he polled almost 25% votes in Modi wave as VBA candidate.
Sitting BJP MP Sanjaykaka Patil or firebrand BJP leader Gopichand Padalkar might get ticket. Padalkar's popularity can be judged from the fact that he polled almost 25% votes in Modi wave as VBA candidate.
BJP got nearly 40% votes on its own in 2014 so one can consider this seat to be a safe bet for BJP.
Prediction : BJP Win.
Prediction : BJP Win.
45. Satara
Rajya Sabha MP Udayanraje Bhosale will contest this constituency. He lost bypoll in 2019 mainly due to Pawar's rain photo. NCP is extremely strong here.
It will be close contest as BJP also increased its footprint in last few years.
Prediction : 50:50 (Edge to NCP).
Rajya Sabha MP Udayanraje Bhosale will contest this constituency. He lost bypoll in 2019 mainly due to Pawar's rain photo. NCP is extremely strong here.
It will be close contest as BJP also increased its footprint in last few years.
Prediction : 50:50 (Edge to NCP).
46. Ratnagiri Sindhudurg
BJP is expected to field Nilesh Rane here. In past few years MVA has struggled here even when they were ruling. Rane polled 31% votes on his own in 2019. With BJP voter base he will win this constituency against SSUBT.
Prediction : BJP Win
BJP is expected to field Nilesh Rane here. In past few years MVA has struggled here even when they were ruling. Rane polled 31% votes on his own in 2019. With BJP voter base he will win this constituency against SSUBT.
Prediction : BJP Win
47. Kolhapur
INC or SSUBT will contest from MVA against SS MP Sanjay Mahadik. BJP is not having a single MLA in this constituency but that doesn't means it is not having any base. After 2019 it expanded its base & currently they have good network here.
INC or SSUBT will contest from MVA against SS MP Sanjay Mahadik. BJP is not having a single MLA in this constituency but that doesn't means it is not having any base. After 2019 it expanded its base & currently they have good network here.
SS MP comes from a powerful political background & he should win unless Congress fields Bunty Patil.
Prediction : SS Win.
Prediction : SS Win.
48. Hatkanangle
This seat will see three way contest between NCP, BSS & SWP.
If by any chance Raju Shetti's SWP decides to back NDA it will safe win for BJP. If MVA backs SWP it will be game over but Sharad Pawar is unlikely to do so.
Prediction : BSS Win.
This seat will see three way contest between NCP, BSS & SWP.
If by any chance Raju Shetti's SWP decides to back NDA it will safe win for BJP. If MVA backs SWP it will be game over but Sharad Pawar is unlikely to do so.
Prediction : BSS Win.
Loading suggestions...