It was a great pleasure to be interviewed by @sreemoytalukdar/@firstpost. I discussed #Egypt-#India relations, #IndoAbrahamic/#I2U2, the need to prepare for a weak China scenario, and the necessity of minilateral formats. My thoughts are as follows: firstpost.com
1. As India looks to expand its strategic reach in West Asia and Africa- and considering Egypt’s demography, geography, and civilization, as well as its military capabilities and geopolitical ambitions — the Cairo-Delhi alignment seems like a partnership is destined for fruition.
2. Egypt’s role in four key theaters—Mediterranean/Red Sea, Africa/West Asia—highlights the value of a potential partnership with India. Cairo maintains an irrefutable seat in the dynamics of the Red Sea and is moving closer to the heart of gas geopolitics in the Mediterranean.
3. I don’t believe there was a drift between Cairo and Delhi, but rather a lack of strategic clarity on what the objectives of India-Egypt bilateral relations in the post-Cold War era were.
4. The nature of global ties is shifting away from bilateral dynamics towards minilateral systems. This shift is driven by the consequences of great power competition and the inability of bilateral relations on their own to preserve the self-interests of middle/regional powers.
5. As middle powers and regional powers seek to establish themselves on the global stage and maintain strategic advantages in key geopolitical and economic domains, there is an interest within both camps to collaborate through agile and narrow-focused frameworks.
6. In my view, great powers are no longer the sole guarantors of security or drivers of development, and resilient middle and regional powers should be respected for their displays of sovereignty when addressing issues on global and regional agendas.
8. This is not to say that bilateral ties will become a thing of the past: minilateralism inherently requires compatible bilateral relations as the foundation for multi-state cooperation.
9. On the Middle East: any Middle East strategy would fail because this region doesn’t exist. In my Indo-Abrahamic thesis, there is a West Asian system that encompasses all the states between India and Egypt.
10. My role here is to delve into how to put forward an intellectual framework that brings these nations together. This is the main impetus behind the #IndoAbrahamic framework and its subsequent minilaterals #I2U2 and the India-France-UAE Trilateral.
11. The #IndoAbrahamic framework changes the status of the US from a security guarantor to a security and defense partner. An agile forum for security cooperation acts as the glue holding together West Asian partners.
12. As the demographic gap between India and China continues to widen quickly, it will cast doubt on China’s relentless rise in the twenty-first century. Regional and middle powers should start thinking about the impact of a weak China scenario.
13. A partnership with India is the right policy choice for Cairo in preparation for a weaker China scenario in the next few decades.
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