Brett Winton
Brett Winton

@wintonARK

5 Tweets Mar 14, 2023
A 14 inch 10-core CPU and 16 core GPU MacBook Pro with a 8tb flash hard drive:
$4,400
The CPI price deflator suggests that if I bought a similarly spec’d system in 1998 it would cost me:
$85,000
The actual 1998 price of just that much traditional hard drive space:
$196,000
In ’98 hard drives made up ~1/6th of total system cost.
A better first approximation of the 1998 cost of today’s MacBook Pro would be on the order of $1.2 million
GDP accounting acts as if today’s laptops are ~20x better than laptops from ~25 years ago but empirically they are close to 300x better.
Technology is causing macroeconomic measures to increasingly diverge from actual real output.
The BEA has tried to capture the divergence and measures the digital economic output as outpacing non-digital by 5 percentage points per annum and making up 10% of overall GDP (as of 2019)
BUT they also measure cost of cloud services as only falling a total of 10% over 13 years
They have since revised the price-indices.
They embed *no* technological deflation in the cost of cloud services since 2012
🤔
In 2012 S3 storage cost $0.125 per month.
By 2016 it was available for $.023 per month

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