23 semi-controversial prediction for 2023:
Elon's Twitter experiment fails.
It dies a gradual, uneventful death.
- The critics stop reacting
- His experiments add little value
- Most importantly, HE gets bored and moves on
Elon spends late 2023 looking for an exit plan. IPO planned for 2024.
It dies a gradual, uneventful death.
- The critics stop reacting
- His experiments add little value
- Most importantly, HE gets bored and moves on
Elon spends late 2023 looking for an exit plan. IPO planned for 2024.
AI will be the bubble of 2023.
Hundreds of AI start-ups will get funded. The big VCs will raise multi-billion dollar "AI funds".
The media will write about it every day.
Yet like w/ all new tech, most of these companies will have no long-term defensibility and go to 0
Hundreds of AI start-ups will get funded. The big VCs will raise multi-billion dollar "AI funds".
The media will write about it every day.
Yet like w/ all new tech, most of these companies will have no long-term defensibility and go to 0
Facebook ends 2023 with an identity crisis and Zuck leaves!
- Apple continues to weaken their ad business
- Cut their Metaverse investment in half
- Struggle to find the next growth opportunity.
The stock drops another 25% and Zuck leaves.
- Apple continues to weaken their ad business
- Cut their Metaverse investment in half
- Struggle to find the next growth opportunity.
The stock drops another 25% and Zuck leaves.
The stock markets drop 20% as interest rates rise and global uncertainty persists.
SaaS struggles with the trifecta.
The combination of:
- seat decline
- multiple compression
- downward pricing pressure
cause another bad year for public and late-stage SaaS companies.
The combination of:
- seat decline
- multiple compression
- downward pricing pressure
cause another bad year for public and late-stage SaaS companies.
Activist investors become.. more active.
Companies who don't react to the new economic environment will have to deal with frustrated shareholders.
Companies who don't react to the new economic environment will have to deal with frustrated shareholders.
The solo entrepreneurship trend flourishes.
Advancements in no-code tools + AI allows entrepreneurship to do more with less.
Many laid off tech workers decide to take this path.
Corollary: Marketplaces like @microacquire thrive.
Advancements in no-code tools + AI allows entrepreneurship to do more with less.
Many laid off tech workers decide to take this path.
Corollary: Marketplaces like @microacquire thrive.
The bootstrapping and alternative financing narrative thrives.
The pendulum shifts back towards bootstrapping as cap tables get reset and notable VC-backed founders & early employees end up with worthless equity.
The pendulum shifts back towards bootstrapping as cap tables get reset and notable VC-backed founders & early employees end up with worthless equity.
The creator economy hype dies.
The creator economy will continue to exist, but:
- only the best make it
- the industry is smaller than many hoped
- 99% of the value accrues to the top .1% of creators.
Most of the businesses who built "tools for creators" go under.
The creator economy will continue to exist, but:
- only the best make it
- the industry is smaller than many hoped
- 99% of the value accrues to the top .1% of creators.
Most of the businesses who built "tools for creators" go under.
wow... typo in the first tweet. fml
TikTok gets banned.
Politicians will see it as both a threat to American and a chance to score political points with their base.
YouTube will be the major winner from this.
Politicians will see it as both a threat to American and a chance to score political points with their base.
YouTube will be the major winner from this.
LinkedIn > Twitter
Twitter thought leaders will get more serious about LinkedIn with the uncertainty at Twitter.
Many will start using it as their primary channel.
Twitter thought leaders will get more serious about LinkedIn with the uncertainty at Twitter.
Many will start using it as their primary channel.
Tech PE funds will generate all-time returns.
PE will scoop up SaaS companies in droves at all-time lows. They will:
-Focus the business
-Cut costs by >50%
-Outsource most of the high-cost labor
They will then IPO in 2025 for huge gains
PE will scoop up SaaS companies in droves at all-time lows. They will:
-Focus the business
-Cut costs by >50%
-Outsource most of the high-cost labor
They will then IPO in 2025 for huge gains
Early startup employees will rebel.
Many early employees of the 2020 darlings have underwater stock options.
Their net worth has shrunk by 90%, while the founders of their companies took massive secondaries.
This will get messy and will spill over onto Twitter.
Many early employees of the 2020 darlings have underwater stock options.
Their net worth has shrunk by 90%, while the founders of their companies took massive secondaries.
This will get messy and will spill over onto Twitter.
Half of the VC funds started in the last 5 years will go away.
They simply won't be able to raise new funds as reality has set in for LPs.
They simply won't be able to raise new funds as reality has set in for LPs.
Global hiring will explode.
With capital markets frozen, businesses will save by hiring talent at half the price oversees.
The best companies will perfect working with oversees talent.
With capital markets frozen, businesses will save by hiring talent at half the price oversees.
The best companies will perfect working with oversees talent.
Further consolidation in media.
Some combination of Vice/Vox/Buzzfeed/Bustle will merge.
It won't make a major difference in the eventual value created by these brands.
Some combination of Vice/Vox/Buzzfeed/Bustle will merge.
It won't make a major difference in the eventual value created by these brands.
The best influencer driven brands will thrive.
Happy Dad (@KyleForgeard), Prime (@LoganPaul, @KSI), Feastables (@MrBeast), and Teremana (@TheRock) all become all become billion dollar brands.
Happy Dad (@KyleForgeard), Prime (@LoganPaul, @KSI), Feastables (@MrBeast), and Teremana (@TheRock) all become all become billion dollar brands.
That's it for my 2023 predictions.
Follow me @austin_rief to see if I got any of these right.
Follow me @austin_rief to see if I got any of these right.
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