With everyone all abuzz about AI, let's revisit a few concepts from my AI post 8 years ago.
Hard to say if we're witnessing the beginning of the long-predicted "intelligence explosion" or just a sporadic burst of new advances. Either way, an S-curve seems to be picking up steam
Hard to say if we're witnessing the beginning of the long-predicted "intelligence explosion" or just a sporadic burst of new advances. Either way, an S-curve seems to be picking up steam
As newer, better AI is released at an increasingly fast rate, "only a human can __" statements are dropping like flies.
[image: kurzweil.ai]
[image: kurzweil.ai]
The thing about AI is it doesn't stop at the human-level intelligence station. It just races past.
The transition from Artificial Narrow Intelligence to Artificial General Intelligence may happen quickly or gradually, but one day, we're gonna wake up with AGI on this planet. This may take us by surprise, because we have a distorted understanding of intelligence...
...We think there's a huge difference between a dumb person and a genius, but actually there's very little. One year, a certain AI will be outmatched by chimps. The next, it'll be way smarter than Einstein.
This is absolutely INSANE if you think about it. For BILLIONS of years, animal intelligence advances at a glacial place. When, eventually, a species comes around that can create superintelligent AI, the highest intelligence on Earth suddenly skyrockets, like hitting a tripwire.
The implications of this are beyond comprehension. Think about all the things we can know and do and create that a monkey cannot, and our brains are very similar. An intelligence the same 2 "steps" above us would blow our mind. But there's no reason AI would stop there...
Things could get pretty intense!
Something way smarter than us is pretty indistinguishable from a god. It might be a great idea or a terrible idea to open that box.
But we're opening it.
Because we can't not open it. Human progress is an organism of its own and no one can stop it. I call it the Human Colossus
But we're opening it.
Because we can't not open it. Human progress is an organism of its own and no one can stop it. I call it the Human Colossus
I don't know if the future is going to be utopia or dystopia. But it's unlikely to be anything in between.
So yeah.
As I said, I don't know if we're currently witnessing the beginning of something absolutely wild or just a really cool set of advances and things won't get wild quite yet.
But I'm excited to be here, living now, in this absolutely wild time. Even if it is pretty scary.
As I said, I don't know if we're currently witnessing the beginning of something absolutely wild or just a really cool set of advances and things won't get wild quite yet.
But I'm excited to be here, living now, in this absolutely wild time. Even if it is pretty scary.
My AI post: waitbutwhy.com
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