2015 and 2016 charts; these are a bit older from Coinbase. I'm not sure if I would necessarily call them 'bear markets' but more consolidation periods where price chopped around for many months. Still, you could see that price did relatively nothing for 6 months+ then
This was the 2018 bear market. You'll note that I took the start of the bear market (late 2017) to the end of the accumulation period (spring 2019). Overall, a very long period where price slow grinded in 2018 and then dropped 50%.
We arguably haven't seen that last capitulation drop, which would be something like 20k-> 10k.
Could it be argued that we don't need to see that, given the overall price action from 70k-->16k? 2018 had a lot more bounces off the 6k level I feel. 2022 was more of a grind.
Could it be argued that we don't need to see that, given the overall price action from 70k-->16k? 2018 had a lot more bounces off the 6k level I feel. 2022 was more of a grind.
Where are we currently at? There are 2 arguments that I can see- the crypto market topped in May 2021 or November 2021. Both have decent arguments IMO. Personally, I am going to mark the all time high level in November myself.
What does this mean going forward? Even if you mark November, it's been over a year since the market topped. If we use 2019 as an example, we still have several months to go and we haven't even hit that -50% move yet (we might not see it, who knows).
And the past bear markets/accumulation are probably not going to necessarily look like this current one; every market cycle is different. Macro environment has never looked like it currently does in 2022 (rates + war + everything else is scary). So we could even be here longer
The bottom line is that we could still be chopping around for 3-6 months and even longer. Buckle up, it's probably going to be a long fucking ride. Accumulation takes a long time and patience is the name of the game. I think most would do best DCA into $BTC and $ETH
For active traders, there WILL be bounces and market moves for sure. I think that we'll see 20-100% moves throughout this accumulation cycle as we always do. But I'm still waiting for a final shakeout before I can assume the bottom is in.
Still, it's always v. hard to time the actual bottom. I rather just DCA into good coins and wait + actively trade when the market has a good environment for it. I'm sure I'm going to get chopped to shit but I can't help it; I still love to trade. Good luck out there.
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