Lesson from the FTX debacle is: a narrative can distort perspectives on exactly the same information.
The fraud part was secret, but all of the stuff that people are pointing out as ridiculous now was publicly available. We interpreted it differently two weeks ago than today:
The fraud part was secret, but all of the stuff that people are pointing out as ridiculous now was publicly available. We interpreted it differently two weeks ago than today:
Ex: company is run by super smart young people --> holy shit they let someone with a couple years of risk at Credit Suisse be the COO
Ex: SBF is good because EA --> EA helped SBF justify a lot of terrible things to himsel
Ex: SBF's parents are lawyers so he's probably buttoned up! --> SBF's dad is an expert on tax shelters who helped come up with this shit:
Ex: SBF is so smart that he could play League of Legends while pitching Sequoia --> they gave money to a kid who was playing League of Legends while pitching
Ex: FTX is lobbying on behalf of crypto for sensible regulation (although a lot of people strongly disagreed with his approach before the fall) --> compliance whitewashing
Ex: trading is so easy for them that the math is basic and old risk management practices are dumb/don't apply --> wait... what?!
Could go on, but you get the point.
For me, as someone who writes narratives and is not immune to getting caught up in hype, something I'm going to try to do:
Pretend the company blew up, and look at evidence through that lens ahead of time to balance my perspective.
For me, as someone who writes narratives and is not immune to getting caught up in hype, something I'm going to try to do:
Pretend the company blew up, and look at evidence through that lens ahead of time to balance my perspective.
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