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Dmitri

11 تغريدة 49 قراءة Sep 18, 2022

🧵An interesting exchange occurred today between three large Russian military reporters (and fighters), Rybar (800k), Voennyi Osvedomytel (450k+) and GREY Zone Wagner page (311k), discussing the potential withdrawal of Russians from the Kherson region.

1. It started with Rybar responding to numerous messages from their audience to the questions about the possibility of Russia withdrawing from the Kherson region in the near future.
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t.me/rybar/38978

In a long post, Rybar argued that the investment of Russians in the temporarily occupied southern regions of Ukraine is times higher than it was in Kharkiv, and the Russian authorities "learned their lessons" by relocating a vastly higher number of troops to the area,...

...reinforcing it with the infamous 3rd Army Corps. Nevertheless, the risk remains as the Ukrainian army is oversaturated with manpower and Western weapons. Rybar refused to draw conclusions, offering readers to make one themselves.

2. The first to react to this was "Voennyi Osvedomytel" ("Military Reporter"), they argued the investment of Russia in the region makes no difference and the situation should only be evaluated from the military point of view.

According to them, Russia did invest in the Kharkiv region, but when the combat situation became critical, the Russians had no other option but to run. If the circumstances allow, the situation may repeat in the Kherson region:
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t.me/milinfolive/90…

3. The Wagner group channel GREY ZONE put the last nail in the coffin of Rybar's logic by stating that the Kherson offensive (rather than a counter-offensive) started way back in May and saw a gradual increase in Ukraine's military equipment transfers and logistics strikes...

peaking around July, accompanied by smaller probing operations.
GREY ZONE shows that Ukrainians are guaranteed to attempt a large-scale Kherson offensive before the spring of 2023, and Russians at best will be able to defend Kherson,...

though citing their own thoughts and conversations with other fighters GREY ZONE show they do not really believe in this. They add that Russians have no chance of continuing any offensive in the region towards Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih:
t.me