In penalty shootouts, should teams shoot first or second?
Consensus is: go first, because you have a 60% chance of winning.
This is wrong.
New research based on more complete data shows no difference, where only 50.8% of the teams going first win.
Here's more.
Thread 1/5
Consensus is: go first, because you have a 60% chance of winning.
This is wrong.
New research based on more complete data shows no difference, where only 50.8% of the teams going first win.
Here's more.
Thread 1/5
Data is from 663 penalty shootouts (ALL major international competitions for men, women & elite youth, since 1970).
Results show no statistical difference; men's teams going first win 53%, women win 42% (overall: 50.8%).
No benefit of going first.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com 2/5
Results show no statistical difference; men's teams going first win 53%, women win 42% (overall: 50.8%).
No benefit of going first.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com 2/5
The author shows the studies previously documenting the 60% benefit of going first were not comprehensive. Gaps in the sample and the majority of the studied shootouts from domestic cup competitions may have biased those data. A more complete study was needed. 3/5
This new research is supported by other recent studies, with the same clear finding: There is no significant advantage from going first in major international football tournaments. For example this one: papers.ssrn.com 4/5
In sum, this means:
1) teams can select to go 2nd in a penalty shootout, and still have an equal chance to win.
2) there is nothing unfair about the current penalty shootout format with teams alternating kicks, and all efforts to replace this should be discontinued.
5/5
1) teams can select to go 2nd in a penalty shootout, and still have an equal chance to win.
2) there is nothing unfair about the current penalty shootout format with teams alternating kicks, and all efforts to replace this should be discontinued.
5/5
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