Nathan Baschez πŸ“§
Nathan Baschez πŸ“§

@nbashaw

4 Tweets Feb 19, 2023
Snapchat+ has attracted 1m subs since launching in June
$3.99/mo * 0.7 = $2.79 (apple tax)
$2.79 * 1m * 12 = $33.5m ARR
Good start! But Snap did $4.5b revenue in the past 12 months, so this still grows revenue by less than 1%
I suspect sub growth will hit a hard ceiling
Snapchat+ appeals to die-hard users with disposable income
Those folks will sign up fast, making the initial pop look really big. But then it will be hard to grow after that because it’s much harder to grow the # of die-hard users than to convert die-hard users to subs
Personally I am not predicting this (or Twitter Blue, or any hypothetical Instagram+ or Pinterest+ type subscription) will make a huge impact in the long run
But 1-2% revenue growth is nothing to turn your nose up at!
Also then 1% revenue growth estimate is based on a naΓ―ve extrapolation of MRR into ARR, which assumes churn is outweighed by sub growth, which is far from assured in this case imo

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