This is an important development for several reasons, but I don't think it heralds the immediate liberation of Kherson. 👇
Kherson and the Nova Kakhovka dam are key Russian strategic objectives to ensure the water supply of Crimea.
Logistical 🧵
1/8
Kherson and the Nova Kakhovka dam are key Russian strategic objectives to ensure the water supply of Crimea.
Logistical 🧵
1/8
Russia simply has to fight here for Crimea to remain viable.
So, important reason # 1.
This development forces Russia to move forces & more importantly refocus it's artillery ammo supply chain from Donbas to Kherson or risk losing Crimea's water.
2/8
So, important reason # 1.
This development forces Russia to move forces & more importantly refocus it's artillery ammo supply chain from Donbas to Kherson or risk losing Crimea's water.
2/8
Important reason #2
Filling the Russia-to-Kherson logistical supply line for the same daily rate of shell usage as Donbas requires more shells to fill all the transport between Russia & Kherson.
3/8
Filling the Russia-to-Kherson logistical supply line for the same daily rate of shell usage as Donbas requires more shells to fill all the transport between Russia & Kherson.
3/8
Important Reason #3
The Russian Army is on the horns of a dilemma. A decision to reinforce Kherson _now_ will cause a logistical pause where neither Donbas nor Kherson will have enough shells and Ukraine knows it.
4/8
The Russian Army is on the horns of a dilemma. A decision to reinforce Kherson _now_ will cause a logistical pause where neither Donbas nor Kherson will have enough shells and Ukraine knows it.
4/8
Important Reason #4
There are four key distances Russia has to keep Ukraine more than a) 15 km, & then b) 8 km from Downtown Kherson and the Nova Kakhovka dam.
15 km is the range where Ukraine's drone directed 122mm guns start killing Russian vehicles.
8 km is the
5/8
There are four key distances Russia has to keep Ukraine more than a) 15 km, & then b) 8 km from Downtown Kherson and the Nova Kakhovka dam.
15 km is the range where Ukraine's drone directed 122mm guns start killing Russian vehicles.
8 km is the
5/8
...range Ukrainian drone directed 125mm tank gun indirect fire starts doing the same thing.
Important reason #5
Russia has got to commit its airpower to the South right now, whatever decision it makes on artillery ammo, because of those four range numbers, & Ukraine knows
6/8
Important reason #5
Russia has got to commit its airpower to the South right now, whatever decision it makes on artillery ammo, because of those four range numbers, & Ukraine knows
6/8
...this too.
That is, Ukraine has pushed SF teams with mines, drones, mortars, ATGM, & MANPADS to work with Ukrainian Partisans in those southern areas, no matter the choice Russia makes.
7/8
That is, Ukraine has pushed SF teams with mines, drones, mortars, ATGM, & MANPADS to work with Ukrainian Partisans in those southern areas, no matter the choice Russia makes.
7/8
Shaping operations are about giving your opponent nothing but bad or worse options.
Ukraine seems to have a nasty one in progress.
8/End
Ukraine seems to have a nasty one in progress.
8/End
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