10 Tweets 2 reads Dec 06, 2022
Why wait to be wise when you’re old?
Here are 5 mental models to be wise now:
Hanlon’s Razor
“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by carelessness.” —Super Thinking
Most of the time people are just busy, hungry, lacking sleep, etc.
Not taking things personally is a superpower.
Get the right perspective with Hanlon’s Razor.
Sunk-Cost Fallacy
We let prior investments (of money, time, and energy) cloud future decisions.
Whether for a startup, career, relationship, etc.
Wise people factor out sunk cost (because you can’t get those costs back)
This will let you make the best decision—right now.
Dunning-Kruger Effect
“The model describes the confidence people experience over time as they move from being a novice to being an export”’ —Super Thinking
Let's dive in...
Novices experience overconfidence due to early success.
While experts’ confidence drops because they realize what they don’t yet know. (This can lead to Imposter Syndrome).
A useful mantra from Scott Galloway:
"Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems."
Inversion
Solve complex problems by starting with the end product and working backward
Here's an example:
Imagine you want to make $100 in sales commission daily.
- You make $10 on each sale
- 20% of calls result in a sale
($100 commission = 10 sales; 10 sales = 50 calls)
So to make $100, you need to make 50 calls a day.
Start with the end in mind; then build your roadmap.
Proximate vs. Root Cause
The proximate cause is what immediately caused something to happen.
The root cause is the real reason something happened.
How does this apply to you?
The proximate cause of being late to work might be traffic.
While the root cause is not leaving your home early enough (or setting an alarm too late).
Solving root causes—rather than proximate causes—is a top-level life skill.
Those were 5 powerful mental models to be wiser.
Thanks for reading! If you learned something today, please retweet the first tweet.
Follow me @systemsunday for more threads on smart living.
All systems go,
Ben

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