Since I praised South Korea's handling of COVID 4 months ago, I should also comment on the Covid crisis that is happening there now.
1) We see what omicron can truly do when it enters a country where very very few have had COVID before.
1) We see what omicron can truly do when it enters a country where very very few have had COVID before.
2) Omicron is NOT mild. It's highly contagious and vaccine evasive. You see that when it enters a country where almost no one has had COVID before.
You can see how it dwarfs the peak in cases that occurred in the US. A peak we considered so high and undwarfable.
You can see how it dwarfs the peak in cases that occurred in the US. A peak we considered so high and undwarfable.
3) It shows how a country can completely shut out Covid for 2 years. It can get 75% of its population fully vaccinated. But it's still not safe from COVID.
When precautions are relaxed, COVID is just lying in wait.
It's disheartening. It shows the nature of the enemy we face.
When precautions are relaxed, COVID is just lying in wait.
It's disheartening. It shows the nature of the enemy we face.
4) Omicron is NOT a mild cold. Even in a well vaccinated population, it can cause deaths. This is because the virus has mutated so much that it is vaccine evasive.
I hope the peak in deaths is doesn't climb more.
I hope the peak in deaths is doesn't climb more.
5) But all is not failure or despair. This is only the first real wave in South Korea. The wave in terms of deaths is much less than 4 of the waves in the US. Total deaths is much lower.
How well South Korea handled the pandemic for 2 years has still saved a huge number of lives
How well South Korea handled the pandemic for 2 years has still saved a huge number of lives
6) Some of the massive difference in daily cases where the peak in South Korea is twice as high as in the US may be related to differences in testing. They are testing a lot. Whereas most of our rapid tests now are not reported.
7) Clearly prior infection provides good protection. So populations like South Korea, China, New Zealand are particularly vulnerable since the public has never had Covid.
Vaccines keep the seriousness and deaths lower. But due to mutated variants, infections will be higher.
Vaccines keep the seriousness and deaths lower. But due to mutated variants, infections will be higher.
8) It was never a question of whether prior infection immunity is better or vaccine immunity is better. It's that vaccines are a safer way of getting immunity.
So South Korea wave cannot be used to say that prior infection immunity is better. That's really a moot question.
So South Korea wave cannot be used to say that prior infection immunity is better. That's really a moot question.
9) Omicron is deceptive. When a lot of vulnerable people have died over 2 years, and a large proportion of the population have had prior Covid, Omicron appears "mild".
You see it's true face when a more immunologically naive population meets it. As we do now in South Korea.
You see it's true face when a more immunologically naive population meets it. As we do now in South Korea.
10) My original thread in November praised South Korea. The leadership and the public. They have a bug wave now as they relaxed precautions thinking that a well vaccinated population can handle omicron.
Still the curves now are not that much different than the one in November.
Still the curves now are not that much different than the one in November.
11) You can see what I posted in November (left) to the one now (right).
Whatever success South Korea achieved in 2 years cannot be discounted. They saved a huge number of lives.
Whatever success South Korea achieved in 2 years cannot be discounted. They saved a huge number of lives.
12) But it shows the enormity of the challenge. Countries that clamped down for 2 years cannot be expected to clamp down forever.
High vaccination rates and booster rates help keep serious disease, hospitalizations, & deaths lower.
High vaccination rates and booster rates help keep serious disease, hospitalizations, & deaths lower.
13) But unfortunately as we see in South Korea, despite vaccination there are vulnerable people, especially elderly & immunocompromised. And children who haven't been vaccinated.
Relaxing precautions is associated with loss of life when we face mutated variants.
Relaxing precautions is associated with loss of life when we face mutated variants.
14) So leaders have to make some tough judgment calls.
It won't be easy.
It won't be easy.
15) To truly prevent Covid infections, we will likely need both an annual booster as well as modified vaccines that are adapted to the mutations.
It will be one more shot similar to the flu vaccine.
It will be one more shot similar to the flu vaccine.
16) Last year I raised the worry that countries that controlled Covid by border control and strict measures like South Korea, China, New Zealand are safe only as long as they can keep precautions tight.
17) Well we see it now. When precautions are relaxed, the virus gains the upper hand.
It's disheartening. I hope however high the wave is, deaths & serious disease stays lower.
Nothing can take away the fact that all the efforts these countries did save a huge number of lives
It's disheartening. I hope however high the wave is, deaths & serious disease stays lower.
Nothing can take away the fact that all the efforts these countries did save a huge number of lives
18) Similarly do not discount the protection offered by vaccines. They may be less effective in preventing mild infections, but they have a huge protective effect in preventing deaths and hospitalizations.
Get vaccinated. Get boosted. And if we need regular boosters, so be it.
Get vaccinated. Get boosted. And if we need regular boosters, so be it.
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