Sticking my neck way out with my first🧵
I believe $LUNA will skyrocket in value in the next 3-6 months in a way few are prepared for. It will be sudden and even some #LUNAtics will be caught off guard.
👇 are my reasons, and what I'm doing to prepare.
1/11
I believe $LUNA will skyrocket in value in the next 3-6 months in a way few are prepared for. It will be sudden and even some #LUNAtics will be caught off guard.
👇 are my reasons, and what I'm doing to prepare.
1/11
$LUNA circ. supply burn is off the charts rn, at about 1.4m/day, excluding @LFG_org activity.
🔥/ $UST mint is capped. This is public info, but easy to see in total supply decrease 👇
Remarkably consistent, no?
2/11
🔥/ $UST mint is capped. This is public info, but easy to see in total supply decrease 👇
Remarkably consistent, no?
2/11
Now the fun part.
🔥 doesn't miss a beat when jumping from $50/token in Feb to $100 in Mar. 👀
We can tell from this that the cap is the limiting factor at both at $50 and $100 $LUNA, not the $UST demand.
3/11
🔥 doesn't miss a beat when jumping from $50/token in Feb to $100 in Mar. 👀
We can tell from this that the cap is the limiting factor at both at $50 and $100 $LUNA, not the $UST demand.
3/11
A key question that we can't accurately answer is, "What is the true demand for $UST?"
The most we can say for sure, is that it's greater than the $UST minted on March 9-11 (~145m/day), when $LUNA ATH's were hit.
4/11
The most we can say for sure, is that it's greater than the $UST minted on March 9-11 (~145m/day), when $LUNA ATH's were hit.
4/11
Now for the supply shock.
Liquid circulating supply is currently less than 1/3 of circulating supply. 109m / 374m 👇
With the exception of governance activities, we can expect that liquid supply will keep burning at approx. the same rate as total circ. supply.
5/11
Liquid circulating supply is currently less than 1/3 of circulating supply. 109m / 374m 👇
With the exception of governance activities, we can expect that liquid supply will keep burning at approx. the same rate as total circ. supply.
5/11
At current 🔥, assuming $LUNA price does not change OR $UST demand is much > than mint cap (same outcome),
liq. supply will drop to 0 in 78 days. Total circ. supply will drop to 0 in 267 days.
This will fluctuate with governance unlocks/burns/adjustments to $UST mint cap.
6/11
liq. supply will drop to 0 in 78 days. Total circ. supply will drop to 0 in 267 days.
This will fluctuate with governance unlocks/burns/adjustments to $UST mint cap.
6/11
2 KEY POINTS:
1. $LUNA price is determined by the total circulating supply, NOT the liquid circulating supply.
2. Liquid circulating supply CAN drop to 0, but due to price model, total circulating supply CANNOT.
7/11
1. $LUNA price is determined by the total circulating supply, NOT the liquid circulating supply.
2. Liquid circulating supply CAN drop to 0, but due to price model, total circulating supply CANNOT.
7/11
What outcomes we can derive from all this?
$LUNA price will be determined by total circ. supply for the next few months, as usual...
SUDDENLY, there will be no liquid supply, which was never accurately priced in, since price is determined by total circ. supply. 🤯
8/11
$LUNA price will be determined by total circ. supply for the next few months, as usual...
SUDDENLY, there will be no liquid supply, which was never accurately priced in, since price is determined by total circ. supply. 🤯
8/11
Complete and very sudden supply shock.
How should you prepare for this?
I have been thinking about this and here is what I'm doing 👇
9/11
How should you prepare for this?
I have been thinking about this and here is what I'm doing 👇
9/11
In the land of 100% staked $LUNA, the man who can get ahold of liquid $LUNA quickly is king.
I am migrating accumulation strategies to follow @Cephii1's constant rotation $LUNA/$bLUNA arb.
This has 2 benefits: 👇
10/11
I am migrating accumulation strategies to follow @Cephii1's constant rotation $LUNA/$bLUNA arb.
This has 2 benefits: 👇
10/11
1. Keeps liquid $LUNA on deck at all times
2. Takes advantage of increased volatility via arb returns
#LUNAtics I steal great ideas from:
@danku_r @Shigeo808 @cryptrus @crypto_rudd @Cephii1 @rebel_defi @nicdors @iii_OIO_iii @TheRyanLion @CryptoHarry_ @CryptoKnight944
11/11
2. Takes advantage of increased volatility via arb returns
#LUNAtics I steal great ideas from:
@danku_r @Shigeo808 @cryptrus @crypto_rudd @Cephii1 @rebel_defi @nicdors @iii_OIO_iii @TheRyanLion @CryptoHarry_ @CryptoKnight944
11/11
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