/1 Here's a few slides that expand on the discussion @danku_r and I had about $LUNA pricing (youtube.com).
NFI of course - just sharing my personal DYOR work. A short ๐งต
NFI of course - just sharing my personal DYOR work. A short ๐งต
There are more details in my recent Substack piece, so check that if you want to delve into the model a little more: murrayrudd.substack.com
First, it is possible to look at price ranges (confidence intervals) at the end of calendar years. I only take the projections out 3-yrs:
Alternatively, it is also possible to look at how long it takes to get to certain price levels. Here is the model's answer to 'wen $250' and 'wen $1000'? These projections are based on supply - market FOMO or fear could slow or accelerate timing
The biggest determinant of LUNA price is UST supply. Here is the projection I used to calculate these price levels:
Think this projection is too low or too high? Instead of focusing on dates, it is possible to look at prices relative to UST market cap. This slide shows price projections for $25, $50, $100, and $150-million UST market cap
Can again look at this in terms of MC to reach particular LUNA prices
The model has 3 things that can be questioned - the UST MC assumption (of course this could be changed), the LUNA price function, and the parameters used in the price function. As time goes by, it should become apparent if those need changes.
At the moment, LUNA is burning quickly but overall supply projections look about on track (I netted out the LFG transfer from circulating supply to keep numbers consistent with model supply definition),
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