US armed Ukraine for 20 years and yet Kiev couldn't fight. Here's what likely happened:
1. Hours before the military action, Russian cyber assault cripples Ukrainian internet and signals communications. Leadership in Kiev is isolated from its military. Exactly what US did in Iraq
1. Hours before the military action, Russian cyber assault cripples Ukrainian internet and signals communications. Leadership in Kiev is isolated from its military. Exactly what US did in Iraq
2. The Russian Army unleashes a lethal barrage of non-nuclear Klub missiles that decapitates the Ukrainian military's HQ, tactical command centres, radars, air defence missiles, anti-aircraft missile units and air force bases. Ukrainian jet fighters probably destroyed on ground.
3. Ukrainian Air Force may have thrown in the towel and stayed on the ground. Better to sit out the war and preserve aerial assets than take on the Russian Air Force and get wiped out. Iraqi Air Force did precisely this in Gulf War when it fled to Iran in the face of heavy odds.
4. Russian Army rolls in. Being a conscript (not volunteer) army, most of its soldiers aren't very motivated or well-trained. Hence, a few hundred rookie soldiers will get killed or become POWs.
5. In the Chechen War of 1994 thousands of poorly armed and unmotivated Russian soldiers were pushed into a meat grinder. Incredible, considering the Soviet Union had a powerful military machine. But that's the nature of war in which conscripts have to do most of the fighting.
6. But against the corrupt and shoddy Ukrainian Army, hobbled by an officer corps that believes in racist theories of superiority, the Russians will win easily. Nazi Germany and the Pakistan Army also lost because they believed they were racially superior to the Slavs and Hindus.
7. At any rate, even if it was a professional fighting force, there's no way the Ukrainian military can stand up to the sheer numbers of troops, tanks, armoured personal carriers, canons and rockets that Russia can throw at it.
8. The best possible outcome of this war is that the bear will take out the corrupt, racist and bear-baiting leadership in Kiev and enforce the de-Nazification of the country. Ukraine can then adopt Finlandization as the cornerstone of its foreign policy.
9. Finlandization is the process whereby a country is induced to favour, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country, despite not being politically allied to it (originally with reference to the influence of the former Soviet Union on its neighbour Finland)
10. Alternatively, the Ukrainian leaders, who were installed in Kiev after a US-sponsored coup against the previous democratically elected govt, will flee to Germany, England, Croatia or the US where they will get political asylum. That would also lead to Finlandisation.
11. Finlandization isn't a bad thing. It doesn't mean a country is neutered, just that it ceases to offer space to the enemies of its much larger and powerful neighbour. For Finland, it resulted in a bunch of benefits.
12. Free from Russian invasion, Finland had a minimal defence budget. Finns concentrated on education and today have the world's best education system. And cleanest air. It gave the world Linux, Nokia, Angry Birds. Finland is famous for being the Happiest Country in the World.
13. Ukraine has vastly greater resources, hundreds of heavy industries such as the Antonov Aircraft Bureau (a Soviet legacy) and a brilliant population (Sukhoi engines were designed by the Ukrainian scientist Lyulka). It could be Finland plus - a mega technology powerhouse.
14. But don't bet on Ukraine acting sensibly. A large number of them are infected by the virus of hatred seeded by the US, UK and Germany, which prodded the Ukrainians to bait the bear. When the bear called the bluff, Ukraine was abandoned by its Western patrons.
15. The likes of Yats, who were illegally installed by the (pure evil incarnate) Victoria Nuland and Hilary Clinton (who distributed biscuits to the coup leaders) are still around. Instead of seeing the writing on the wall, Ukrainian leaders are still calling for outside help.
16. Ukraine is destined to be a festering sore in Europe for decades. If the Russians go back, leaving behind a rump state, the vultures from Washington will descend again to instigate the Ukrainians. The only hope is Putin walks the talk and ensures 100% de-Nazification.
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