2- This raises another question: what can the Biden's & EU governments do? The answer consists of two parts. The first relates to the ineffectiveness of sanctions. The second relates to the dependence of the US & Europe on Russian energy sources & other materials such as pig iron
4- Studies also show that sanctions affected both parties, the targeted & the imposer, negatively. Yet, countries continued to impose sanctions for their “symbolic” values while targeted countries were able to withstand the pain because of “nationalism” #Oil
5- Will the US and Europe's dependence on oil & gas imports make sanctions limited in scope & impact? Yes, that is exactly what we have seen so far. No efforts to force Russia out of the international payment system “SWIFT”, and no sanctions that affect oil and gas supplies.
6- The American iron and steel industry depends on imports of pig iron from Russia. Will the Biden administration stop these imports, which will result in a slowdown in US plants and possibly layoffs of workers whom Biden needs in the November elections?
9- Why is the Biden administration fighting the #NordStream2 pipeline?
a- To keep #Ukraine relevant to #Europe so Europe can defend it in the future
b- To carve a permanent market share for the US #LNG in Europe
a- To keep #Ukraine relevant to #Europe so Europe can defend it in the future
b- To carve a permanent market share for the US #LNG in Europe
10- 9-a above might lead Russian forces or their operatives to permanently destroy parts of the Ukraine gas pipeline that link Ukraine to Europe. Otherwise, installing a friendly regime will save the pipeline. 9-b is not sustainable in the long run. Europe needs Nord Stream II
11- What are Putin's options if tough sanctions are imposed on Russia?
If forthcoming sanctions are severe & reduce Russia’s ability to sell its oil in Europe, #Russia can switch some of its exports to the East.
Regardless, the world oil trade will be shuffled & oil redacted.
If forthcoming sanctions are severe & reduce Russia’s ability to sell its oil in Europe, #Russia can switch some of its exports to the East.
Regardless, the world oil trade will be shuffled & oil redacted.
12- If Russia is expelled from the SWIFT system, it can export oil & gas but cannot get paid. Russia can resort to its agreements with Turkey, Iran, and Russia to trade directly in local currencies. Russian mafia will work its magic throughout the world to funnel cash to Moscow.
13- Expelling Russia from the SWIFT system will force it to develop a non-dollar system with the help of China, Turkey, and Iran. A serious problem for the US. They cannot price oil and gas in non-dollar currency, but they can get revenues in non-dollar currencies. #Dollar
15- The chilling impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis (1): Lower oil production in some oil-producing countries because of demonstrations & political instability as a reaction to higher fuel and food prices. Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of grains & foodstuff.
16- Remember this: wars and political stability in oil-producing countries happen only during high-oil prices. They have never happened in periods of low oil prices. Food & fuel shortages and higher prices are serious matters in some oil-producing countries.
17- The chilling impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis (2): The slowing down of carbon normality policies as subsidies for food & fuel compete with subsidies for renewable energy & #ElectricVehicles. Elections matter. Food and fuel are common denominators among most populations
19- To conclude: even if Russian oil exports do not decline, the impact of food & fuel shortages & higher prices might reduce oil exports in some oil-producing countries. The slowing down of climate change policies will also increase the demand for oil! @ericnuttall #Russia #Oil
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