Some notes regarding the origin of the ballistic missile attack on Abu Dhabi. This estimated geolocation seems to be accurate, and that provides some clues to estimate the trajectory of the missile(1).
The apparent reentry angle of the missile/remnants of the missile can be measured ~69 degrees. Having the apparent angle and making some assumptions about the actual angle from the POV of an observer normal to the flight path, (2)
it is possible to estimate the relative heading of the observer and hence the actual heading of the incoming missile. This is based on a reasonable assumption that the interception won't change the lateral velocity/direction of the missile significantly.(3)
The typical trajectory of a Scud type ballistic missile has a steep re-entry angle of ~30deg. But in this case, it seems that the missile has been already intercepted and probably lost a significant portion of the horizontal component of its velocity (4).
If we change/vary the actual reentry angle from 22.5 to 55 degrees, the actual incoming heading of the missile varies between 112 and 136 degrees (5).
Drawing those headings reveals that the lower angles put the origin of the missile at friendly territories to UAE (KSA, Jordan) or if it is launched from Iraq flying over Kuwaiti territories. Interestingly the higher values coincide with two known IRGC missile bases (6).
@obretix , @PutinIsAVirus , @AuroraIntel , @VleckieHond, @benreuter_IMINT, @masao_dahlgren.
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The original video showing the trajectory of missile remnants can be seen here:
Some strong arguments that suggest the projectile I identified as the missile remnants could be the remains of the interceptor that was fired to southwest (I will try to put some holes in this argument):
@obretix argues the same thing:
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