$BTC
Haven't updated much because I've been long since 47.3K on futures, and always long on spot - so been comfy
But now - OH NO!! Bull Market over!!
Alright, unbunch your panties and let's have a look at what's going on
1/
Haven't updated much because I've been long since 47.3K on futures, and always long on spot - so been comfy
But now - OH NO!! Bull Market over!!
Alright, unbunch your panties and let's have a look at what's going on
1/
There was a ton of resistance around 58K (still is plenty to get through) so I hope it wasn't a surprise we started to have a retracement there
My TP level was at 57.6K to front run the two nPOC (we ran into the Monthly one)
If we start getting higher then we can look again
2/
My TP level was at 57.6K to front run the two nPOC (we ran into the Monthly one)
If we start getting higher then we can look again
2/
Let's zoom out a minute and look at the Daily chart
We put the low in at 39.5K and then changed Market Structure to bullish once we broke 45.1K
Since then we've gone up 27% without a meaningful higher low
So overall, we'd expect the +EV trade still to be longing support
3/
We put the low in at 39.5K and then changed Market Structure to bullish once we broke 45.1K
Since then we've gone up 27% without a meaningful higher low
So overall, we'd expect the +EV trade still to be longing support
3/
What's the order flow looking like?
First - we know a lot of traders are on the sidelines
Then we know the get all emotional and short every rise only to get screwed (see previous Tweets)
And now?
A lot of bullish CVD divergence both LTF and MTF
4/
First - we know a lot of traders are on the sidelines
Then we know the get all emotional and short every rise only to get screwed (see previous Tweets)
And now?
A lot of bullish CVD divergence both LTF and MTF
4/
What is bullish CVD divergence?
Higher low on price - lower low on CVD
This CAN indicate that market short orders are being absorbed by (usually bigger) limit long orders
There's nuance to it but it's a good heads up that larger traders are likely filling bags still
5/
Higher low on price - lower low on CVD
This CAN indicate that market short orders are being absorbed by (usually bigger) limit long orders
There's nuance to it but it's a good heads up that larger traders are likely filling bags still
5/
A lot of people will try to catch engagement by continually saying the top is in
But we're here to make money, not clout, right?
And there's no point fighting the trend
So if:
- we're in an uptrend
- looking for support to long
Where do we look?
6/
But we're here to make money, not clout, right?
And there's no point fighting the trend
So if:
- we're in an uptrend
- looking for support to long
Where do we look?
6/
Quite an obvious place is your favorite larper's memeline for a backtest
So while that could give a nice entry, it's a bit obvious
What the market is more likely to do IMO is either go deeper than it *should* and make people scared to long, or bounce higher than it *should*
7/
So while that could give a nice entry, it's a bit obvious
What the market is more likely to do IMO is either go deeper than it *should* and make people scared to long, or bounce higher than it *should*
7/
So those of you being a pussy are going to be shit outta luck
With that in mind, I like this area of support as a nice place to look
The previous high *may* give a nice bounce, I would say more likely for a day trade than a swing (but we take what we get)
8/
With that in mind, I like this area of support as a nice place to look
The previous high *may* give a nice bounce, I would say more likely for a day trade than a swing (but we take what we get)
8/
However the Daily nPOC just above the .618 and just below the Weekly looks really nice to me
Lose the Weekly, people are scared
Wait for the .618, people miss the trade
Front run the memeline
So I'd be setting alerts to watch the reaction there
9/
Lose the Weekly, people are scared
Wait for the .618, people miss the trade
Front run the memeline
So I'd be setting alerts to watch the reaction there
9/
If we go lower, then we look for lower support to long
If we change MS, then we can start to look for bounces to short
If we SFP the highs, we can look for a nice short scalp that might turn into a swing
10/
If we change MS, then we can start to look for bounces to short
If we SFP the highs, we can look for a nice short scalp that might turn into a swing
10/
If we SFP local lows, we can look for a nice short long that might turn into a swing
Until then we can set our alerts and be patient
11/end
Until then we can set our alerts and be patient
11/end
*scalp long
Annoying
Annoying
Loading suggestions...