First, let's be clear. No one really knows for certain. No one can predict the future.
I shared this chart at the start of the year.
Basically it shows lengthening cycles and diminishing returns percentage wise.
Bull run ends from December to March
I shared this chart at the start of the year.
Basically it shows lengthening cycles and diminishing returns percentage wise.
Bull run ends from December to March
This chart from Ben Cowen also shows this concept. Either this was shortest lowest ROI cycle ever, or we are heading for our double bubble with a cycle end in early 2022.
Regardless of when exactly it comes the next few months will probably be insane beyond what most of you can imagine, but also one day during all that mania the music will stop.
So here are some tools we can use to spot the top.
So here are some tools we can use to spot the top.
The 2 year MA multiplier, every bull run so far has finished above the red line.
Selling anywhere in that zone, particulary 3 to 4 weeks after crossing over was the best time to sell.
Selling anywhere in that zone, particulary 3 to 4 weeks after crossing over was the best time to sell.
The Puell Multiple is another great tool. All previous cycle tops were marked by a spike into the red box. this period usually lasts for a few weeks and selling during this time was a period of max gains.
The BTC Rainbow log chart never once got into sell of maximum bubble territory during the cycle. All other cycles did. This would be the time as the chart shows to sell.
The net unrealized profit loss chart is another great indicator. All previous tops were marked with a cross into Euphoria. This tends to a shorter blow off indicator. When this hits it basically screams time to get out!
Sentiment wise this is also when we see people posting pictures of new cars, watches, etc and saying that this will only go up forever. School friends and uncles will be talking about doge. It's the I'm a genius phase - smart money is selling & not so smart money is buying.
Yes, another bear cycle will come. But that does not mean a repeat of 2018. The crypto market has evolved.
We saw a very similar pattern of volatility across tech stocks in their early years with massive volatility. Then over time market corrections became less severe.
Apple
We saw a very similar pattern of volatility across tech stocks in their early years with massive volatility. Then over time market corrections became less severe.
Apple
Institutional money is here, defi is here, gaming, NFTs. Why "cash out"? More money will stay in longer IMO thus creating a high low compared to previous cycles.
Super cycle theories still in play. Bear may be much shorter and shallower.
Central bank insanity continues
Super cycle theories still in play. Bear may be much shorter and shallower.
Central bank insanity continues
But always remember the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
That being said don't fade Metcalfe's law and the rapid expansion of the crypto market user base.
IMO 2020's will be biggest financial opportunity of your lifetime.
Bear is for buying
That being said don't fade Metcalfe's law and the rapid expansion of the crypto market user base.
IMO 2020's will be biggest financial opportunity of your lifetime.
Bear is for buying
Final important point! You do not need to perfectly sell the top to get rich in crypto. BUT you do need to sell at some point so make sure you are ready for when this happens. Only a few of coins are long term HODLs. Most I will cash out. Have your escape plan ready.
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