Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing

5 Tweets 12 reads May 15, 2021
⚠️FASTER TRANSMISSION warning from UK🇬🇧 govt of #B16172 variant—“confident that B16172 is more transmissible than #B117, & realistic possibility that #B16172 could be 50% more transmissible & would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations.”🧵
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
2) the SAGE report also warns: “In the areas where numbers of infections are increasing rapidly under the measures currently in place, an even faster increase can be expected if measures are relaxed (high confidence)”
3) “There are local areas where new infections is increasing. Some local areas have had continued rapid growth in variants—particular concern is B.1.617.2 variant (first identified in India, now widespread). There are now multiple fast-growing clusters of this variant in the UK.
4) So if #B117 variant is ~60% faster than the original strain, and #B16172 is 50% faster than B117, then 1.6*1.5= 2.4.
Thus it’s possible that #B16172 is ~2.4x faster transmission than original Wuhan strain!
Let that sink in… what do you get?
…this in India 🇮🇳
5) Vaccines are cool… but we need to combine with masks. Vaccines alone not enough for faster variants.

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