Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing

9 Tweets 59 reads May 13, 2021
📍My god… the upgraded warning #B16172 variant (magenta) is surging so fast. Epidemiologists now estimate it is 60% faster than even #B117 UK/Kent variant, which is already 50% faster. If true, it could make it fastest transmission one to be found worldwide. Thread 🧵. #COVID19
2) #B1672 has become quite dominant in India 🇮🇳 sequenced samples in @GISAID data. And it is projected to take over further by June. Figure from @TWenseleers.
Some say it could be due to sampling, but Tom doesn’t think so because #B16171 wouldn’t be selectively withheld.
3) @TWenseleers used his methods from earlier paper to estimate the new #B16172 transmission being 60% fast than the U.K. Kent #B117 variant.
4) the Brazilian #P1 variant m, despite being 2x faster than original strain, would be actually slower than the #B16172 if put into head to heads transmission competition.
5) And now #B16172 is surging in the UK too. Someone poke Boris Johnson to wake up.
6) the new UK data on #B16172 surge from @sangerinstitute is reliable because it excludes travel sequenced cases and excludes screening.
UK data even suggested #B16172 could even by 2x faster (not just 60% faster from India 🇮🇳 data above) than the #B117!! Wow. 👀
7) The World Health Organization said that the coronavirus variant first identified in India last year is being classified as a variant of global concern, with some preliminary studies showing that it spreads more easily
8) Its surging across UK. #B16172 is the new variant that we faced with in addition to #P1.
9) #B1617 lineages are surging worldwide.
Nobody is safe until we are all vaccinate.

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