@mophleb STOP using this statement “The scale of 5000 is based on a realistic estimation of the capacity of the health care system”.
It’s INACCURATE & MISLEADING!
#Lebanon #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve #RaiseTheLine #healthNERDS @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
It’s INACCURATE & MISLEADING!
#Lebanon #COVID19 #FlattenTheCurve #RaiseTheLine #healthNERDS @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
1/ You estimate that ONLY 5000 people (0.08% of the population) will get infected!
This is inconsistent with current evidence on this outbreak, WHO projections, & pretty much everything we know about COVID-19 so far!
Where did this “realistic estimation” of 5000 come from?
This is inconsistent with current evidence on this outbreak, WHO projections, & pretty much everything we know about COVID-19 so far!
Where did this “realistic estimation” of 5000 come from?
2/ In your COVID-19 National Preparedness plan, you estimated:
600,000 people (10% of the population) will get infected
90,000 will seek healthcare
18,000 will require hospitalization
2,700 will require intensive care
moph.gov.lb
600,000 people (10% of the population) will get infected
90,000 will seek healthcare
18,000 will require hospitalization
2,700 will require intensive care
moph.gov.lb
3/ You assume that the outbreak duration is 102 days (Feb 21-Jun 1), and estimate that 5000 hospital beds will be available during this duration.
INACCURATE → see next
INACCURATE → see next
4/MOPH reported that there are 14102 beds across all hospitals in Lebanon, of which only 810 are currently available. Even if we assume 10% (1410) are available during the outbreak & length of stay is 15 days, we need to spread the outbreak over 7 months to stay within capacity.
5/ It’s misleading to say that we have “576 beds + 234 ICU beds + 263 ventilators” & come up with a “realistic” # of infections that would keep us within capacity.
6/ There will be a lot more than 5000 infections
.. a lot more than 1000 people needing hospitalization
.. & a lot more than 250 patients requiring intensive care
.. a lot more than 1000 people needing hospitalization
.. & a lot more than 250 patients requiring intensive care
@Rattibha unroll please
Loading suggestions...