THREAD: So where's the next big Coronavirus problem going to hit? Look out for:
1. India
2. Russia
3. Homeless and refugee communities
4. Germany
5. Iceland (i know it sound weird - but they have the highest known infection rate now, overtaking Italy). Reasoning follows ...
1. India
2. Russia
3. Homeless and refugee communities
4. Germany
5. Iceland (i know it sound weird - but they have the highest known infection rate now, overtaking Italy). Reasoning follows ...
Why India's a problem: Only 500 people a day were being tested up to now - in a country of 1.3 billion with very uneven health infrastructure. Revised plans would test only 2 million. Social distancing v.v. hard to do in urban slums. icmr.nic.in
Why #Russia's a problem: They reported only 147 cases, despite land border and close trading links with China. Throw in Russia’s coronavirus disinformation campaigns, and a claim to have tested 116,000 people for 147 positives is ? themoscowtimes.com
The homeless/refugee/slum problem: Hygiene and lack of health support. It's obvious and doesn't need much explanation here. Some refugee communities also highly mobile by necessity. Not clear when/where a dam wall breaks here, but when it does it will be messy.
Why Germany's a problem: Merkel doesn't get worked up for nothing but just described this as Germany's biggest challenge since the Nazis. Germany has an exceptionally low death rate so far (0.002% vs 8.2% for Italy) and the case load jumped 24% yesterday. Only way is down.
Why Iceland's a problem: The tiny island nation of 360,000 now has the highest infection intensity in the world. 250 cases means 70 cases per 100,000 people.
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Important to note, as always, that these numbers are known infections. Some countries look worse in relative terms because they have tested more. Others we can only guess at because they haven't tested or won't disclose. Treat this as a heads-up, not a scientfic bible ??
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