Rapid opposition losses in southern Idlib & northern Hama in the past 2 weeks prompted Turkey to send additional convoys into Idlib, risking the lives of its soldiers & confrontation with the regime & Russia. What's behind these losses?
In the past 2 weeks, since the collapse of the brief ceasefire in Idlib, the regime & Russian-backed militias were able to take more territory than they were able to do in the first 3 months of their campaign
I spoke to Idlib residents, incl rebels & opposition commanders to try to understand what's behind this collapse.
The main reason appears to be simply exhaustion: the rebels have been subjected to thousands of airstrikes. At least 2,000 rebels have been killed since late April.
The main reason appears to be simply exhaustion: the rebels have been subjected to thousands of airstrikes. At least 2,000 rebels have been killed since late April.
2 weeks ago jihadist cleric Muhaysini said the opposition lost 1,600 fighters, probably an under-counting. Since then, the number of rebels killed has grown by the hundreds. Idlib is home to tens of thousands of rebels, but many of them have little recent fighting experience.
The fighting experience of some factions is lobbing rockets & manning checkpoints. The brunt of Idlib front-line fighting is being shouldered by Jaysh al-Izza, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and some sub-factions of the National Liberation Front. Attrition in their ranks is immense.
Only this week, "fresh" experienced fighters were dispatched to Idlib - jihadist factions moved forces from Lattakia to the Skayk-Tel Tar'i front-line, halting regime progress there.
Only this week HTS concluded a deal w/ the Turkish-backed National Army (SNA) to enter Idlib.
Only this week HTS concluded a deal w/ the Turkish-backed National Army (SNA) to enter Idlib.
Some of the SNA factions recently underwent training in Turkey, but they have not fought without Turkish air cover for years. They're useful for fire support, tho.
In short: the opposition does not have enough experienced fighters on the front-lines to make up for fast attrition
In short: the opposition does not have enough experienced fighters on the front-lines to make up for fast attrition
On the other hand, as shown in research of @GregoryPWaters, the regime is able to rotate fresh units to the front-lines. Having destroyed all other rebel pockets, the regime can concentrate on Idlib (while neglecting the fighting against ISIS in the Homs/DeZ desert).
Thanks to Russian training, the regime also improved its fighting capacity, particularly at night, and its fighters now routinely utilize night-vision goggles/scopes (pic of regime fighters from Madaya).
Previously, nights were when opposition fighters often regained ground due to inability of regime air force to operate at night.
Rebels are fundraising to purchase night-vision goggles, but they are expensive & require training to be able to use effectively in combat.
Rebels are fundraising to purchase night-vision goggles, but they are expensive & require training to be able to use effectively in combat.
The rebels are relying on ATGM strikes & SVBIED attacks, but those are not as effective as before. In the past, such attacks would prompt regime fighters to retreat. Now they launch new offensives merely hours after losing dozens of fighters to an SVBIED attack.
The regime & Russia have also changed targeting patterns of airstrikes. In the past, they would randomly bomb areas far from the front lines, just killing & terrorizing civilians. Now, air strikes are much more concentrated on areas close to front-lines, where the regime & Russia
want to kill and displace civilians, and hit supply routes of the armed opposition. For example, Idlib city, al-Atareb and towns in northern Idlib have largely escaped strikes, thus far. The concentration of firepower on a small stretch of land is much more effective militarily.
2 explanations to rebel losses commonly heard among Syrians are wrong, imo:
1) Iranian-backed forces joining the fight: no public evidence exists for this opposition claim (such as "martyrdom" notices)
1) Iranian-backed forces joining the fight: no public evidence exists for this opposition claim (such as "martyrdom" notices)
2) A supposed deal between Turkey & Russia to hand over parts of Idlib in exchange for SDF areas: no evidence exists for this either & Russia doesn't get to decide the fate of SDF areas, the US does. Turkey also did not prevent SNA fighters from going to Idlib & provides ATGMs.
This theory is incredibly prevalent among Syrians residents incl rebels (I've heard it from all rebels with whom I spoke except HTS fighters). It possibly affects their morale and willingness to fight. Now that Turkey dispatched new convoys, this perception may change.
How does all of this affect civilians? This collapse in rebel ranks is terrifying civilians in Idlib. Many are rallying to help the rebels by cooking food for them, digging trenches, filling sand bags, donating money, providing tires to burn for makeshift air cover.
The rebels are much more reliant on the population now that support has been reduced/cut off by foreign backers. Weapons are still coming from Turkey, but salaries are laughable (NLF fighters get 50 Turkish Lira per month, $30), meaning families finance their sons' fighting
Civilians in Idlib feel they have no choice but to stand behind the opposition. They believe, probably rightly so, that they will be slaughtered & jailed if the regime takes over. The border with Turkey is locked & smuggling is unaffordable conversationalist.org
The int'l community seems to have accepted that a tiny stretch of land populated with 3 million civilians, more than half of them children, will be bombed into oblivion. On an hourly basis, humans who feel pain just like we do are crushed under rubble, burned & displaced. Enough.
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